自然灾害对山东省粮食生产影响的实证分析  

The empirical analysis on the impact of natural disasters on grain production in Shandong province

作　　者：栾健[1] 周玉玺[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东农业大学经济管理学院\三农问题研究中心,泰安271018

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2016年第4期127-131,共5页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：教育部人文社科基金项目(项目号:11YJA630217);山东农业大学现代农业发展研究院项目(项目号:14XSK2-02)资助

摘　　要：自然灾害对粮食安全和粮食产量稳定具有极大影响。文中采用山东省1978-2012年粮食生产相关数据,分析了自然灾害对粮食生产的影响程度。首先,从粮食单产量入手,将粮食单产量分解为技术因素、社会因素和自然因素的影响。结果表明：自然因素是影响粮食单产量的首要因素,具体影响程度约为59.50%;其次,运用脱钩理论分析了山东省自然灾害对粮食总产量的影响。结果表明,目前自然灾害与粮食产量表现为扩张耦合的关系,粮食总产量仍受到自然灾害的强力束缚。Natural disasters affect the grain security and stability greatly. We analyzed its impact on grain production based on the data from 1978 - 2012 in Shandong province in this paper. Firstly,we decomposed the single output into technical factors,social factors and natural factors,and found the effect of natural factors was the largest,nearly 59. 50%. Next,we analyzed its impact on grain output by using decoupling theory,and found the relationship of natural disasters and the total output of grain was expansive and coupling. Natural disasters still strongly restrict the food production.

关 键 词：粮食生产 自然灾害 脱钩理论 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]