中国乙脑发病率趋势分析及预测  

Analysis and Prediction on the Epidemic Encephalitis B Incidences in China

作　　者：陶长余[1] 陈郁[1] 章士军[1] 

机构地区：[1]南通市疾病预防控制中心,江苏226007

出　　处：《医学动物防制》2016年第3期323-324,327,共3页Journal of Medical Pest Control

基　　金：南通市卫生局2012年人才工作专项资金(W201223)

摘　　要：目的分析和预测中国乙脑发病率趋势,为制定公共卫生政策提供参考。方法采用线性回归方法分析2005-2014年中国乙脑发病率变化趋势;建立GM(1,1)模型,并对未来3年乙脑发病率进行预测。结果 2005-2014年间中国乙脑发病率呈快速下降趋势,APC值为-18.13%;灰色GM(1,1)模型表达式为,后验差比值为0.3 476,小误差概率为100%,利用该模型预测未来3年发病率(1/10万)分别为0.0 562、0.0 440、0.0 345。结论中国乙脑发病率呈持续下降趋势,还需继续加强实施消除蚊媒滋生环境、预防接种和健康教育等相关措施,进一步降低乙脑发病率。Objective The purpose of this study was to analyze and predict the trend of the epidemic encephalitis B incidences in China,thus affording the basis for formulating public health policies. Methods The linear regression method was used to analyze the tendency of the epidemic encephalitis B incidences in China from2005- 2014. The grey model GM（ 1,1） was applied,and to forecast the incidences in the coming three years. Results The epidemic encephalitis B incidence declined rapidly,and the APC was- 18. 13%. The formula of the GM（ 1,1） model was,which had passed testing well,with the posterior error ratio being0. 3 476 and the small error probability being 100%. Accordingly,the model was applied to predict the epidemic encephalitis B incidences in the coming three years,which were 0. 0 562,0. 0 440 and 0. 0 345 per hundred thousand respectively. Conclusions The epidemic encephalitis B incidence in China was in decline continually,relevant measures such as eliminating mosquitoes breeding grounds,vaccination and health education should be reinforced continually to restrain the epidemic encephalitis B incidence further.

关 键 词：乙脑 发病率 灰色模型 预测 

分 类 号：R512.32[医药卫生—内科学]