费率市场化、汽车产业新常态与商业车险发展——基于我国商业车险有效需求实证研究  

Premium Rate Marketization,Vehicle Industry's New Normal and the Development of Commercial Vehicle Insurance——Based on a Study on China's Demand for Commercial Vehicle Insurance

作　　者：于新亮[1] 朱浩[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学金融学院,天津300071

出　　处：《保险研究》2016年第2期35-46,共12页Insurance Studies

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"我国社会发展与民生保障战略研究"(编号13JJD840004)的资助

摘　　要：费率市场化和汽车产业新常态将影响我国商业车险的进一步发展。运用中国家庭金融调查统计数据(CHFS),从微观角度对我国商业车险有效需求进行实证研究,并进一步考察保险公司"选择性供给"能力和汽车保有"样本选择"效应对商业车险有效需求的影响。结果表明:在信息不对称下,需求者存在逆选择,而保险公司仅具有不完整的"选择性供给"行为,在费率市场化后其风险识别能力有待提升;在我国,汽车保有对商业车险有效需求存在"样本选择"效应,即较高收入群体既是汽车保有者,又是商业车险的主要购买者,目前汽车产业微增长态势将导致我国商业车险发展规模受限。未来保险公司应主动加强风险识别和管控能力,重在提高商业车险经营绩效。The premium rate marketization and the vehicle industry＇ s new normal will affect the future development of China＇ s commercial vehicle insurance. Using China Household Finance Survey （CHFS） data, this paper made an empirical study on the effective demands for commercial vehicle insurance in China, and further investigated the insurance companies＇ selective supply capability and car ownership＇ s sample selection effect. The results showed that,under an asymmetric information situation, there was anadverse selection among the insured, while in- surance companies had incomplete selective supply behaviors. This indicated that the latter＇ s risk identification capability remained to be enhanced post-premium rate marketization. Car ownership had the sample selection effects in China, which meant that higher income group was not only the main owners of cars, but also the main buyers of commercial insurance. The current slight growth momentum of the vehicle industry would limit the development of commercial vehicle insurance in China. In the future insurance companies should take the initiative to improve their ability of risk identification and control.

关 键 词：商业汽车保险 费率市场化 汽车产业新常态 选择性供给 样本选择效应 

分 类 号：F840.65[经济管理—保险]