税收优惠政策对商业健康险激励效应研究  

Tax Policy's Incentive Effects on Commercial Health Insurance

作　　者：朱铭来[1] 王美娇[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学金融学院中国特色社会主义经济建设协同创新中心,天津300350

出　　处：《保险研究》2016年第2期47-58,共12页Insurance Studies

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"我国社会发展与民生保障战略研究"(编号13JJD840004);教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目"老龄化对中国经济发展的影响及应对策略研究"(编号13JZD005)的资助

摘　　要：税收优惠政策通过避税效应和示范效应两个路径激励商业健康保险需求。本文选用天津市基本医疗保险参保个人抽样调查数据,构建税收优惠政策下的商业健康保险"需求—收入"两部模型,再代入拟合的我国职工工资收入分布,进而预测税收优惠政策激励下的商业健康保险市场规模。预测结果显示,个人购买税收优惠型商业健康保险的概率随收入呈倒U形分布;个人愿意支付的保费层级与所处收入层级正向相关;如果税收优惠政策带来的潜在需求完全释放,健康险保费的年增加约为4276亿元。此外,本文推算的年度税收优惠总额约为170亿元,仅占我国个人所得税收入总额约2.3%,对总体税收结构影响不大。最后,本文根据16个大城市2014年个人所得税实际税收情况占全国个人所得税收入之比,预测各个城市商业健康险潜在市场规模,我们发现上海、宁波、深圳、苏州、南通等五个城市潜在市场规模均为现在商业健康险市场规模的5倍以上,上海、北京、深圳、广州、苏州等五个城市的商业健康险潜在新增市场规模将超过100亿元。Favorable tax policy induces the demand of private health insurance with tax shield effect and the demonstration effect. Using data of Basic Medical Insurance participation survey in Tianjin, we tried to construct the private health insurance demand-income model. We also tried to estimate the size of private health insurance market by fitting employee wages distribution into the model. The results shows that the probability of individuals buying private health insurance has an inverted U-shaped distribution with income;the levels of premiums individuals are willing to pay are positively correlated wuth their levels of income ; if potential needs are fully released due to tax incentives, China＇ s commercial health insurance premiumsmay increase 427.6 billion yuan annually. Meanwhile, the corresponding tax expenditure will be around 17 billion yuan according to our projection, accounting for only 2. 3% of China＇ s tax revenue, therefore it won＇ t have a big impact on the overall tax revenue structure. Finally, using the individual income tax data of 16 cities and their respective percentages in the total national number in 2014, we also tried to estimate the commercial health insurance market size for individual cities. According to our projection, the potential market size for Shanghai potential incremental market size , Ningbo, Shenzhen, Suzhou and Nantong are 5 times their current sizes, and the for Shanghai, Beijing, Zhenzhen, Guangzhou, and Suzhou exceeds 10 billion yuan.

关 键 词：商业健康保险 税收优惠政策 激励效应 Heckoprobit模型 

分 类 号：F840.65[经济管理—保险]