工业赶超与经济结构失衡  

Catch-up Industrialization and Structural Imbalances in the Economy

作　　者：张斌[1] 茅锐[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所,研究员北京100732 [2]浙江大学管理学院,副教授杭州310058

出　　处：《中国社会科学》2016年第3期80-98,共19页Social Sciences in China

基　　金：中国金融四十人青年论坛"中国经济转型建模研究"课题;国家自然科学基金项目(71403237);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(14YJC790089);浙江省自然科学基金项目(LQ14G030008)的资助

摘　　要：在一个两部门世代交叠模型中引入扶持工业部门的政策组合,研究政府之手对经济结构主要指标储蓄率、资本真实边际回报率以及资本与劳动在工业与非工业部门间分配结构的影响,结果发现:在平衡增长路径上,工业扶持政策有三个方面的长期影响。刺激资本和劳动力流向工业部门,提高工业部门的相对资本存量和产出;减少消费者对工业和非工业品的最终消费,提高储蓄率;压低资本的真实边际回报率。数值模拟结果显示,如果政府采取歧视非工业部门发展、刺激工业部门发展这一政策组合,则当政府增加相当于GDP 10%的额外工业品需求时,如投资基础设施建设,会导致储蓄率上升2.6个百分点,资本真实边际回报率下降0.4个百分点。By introducing into a two-sector overlapping generations model a policy mix supporting the industrial sector and by studying government influence on key economic structure indicators(saving rates,the real marginal rate of return on capital,and the effect of the labor-capital distribution structure in the industrial and non-industrial sectors),we found that the policy of industry support has three long-term effects on the balanced growth path.It stimulates the flow of labor and capital to the industrial sector and raises the sector's relative capital stocks and output;reduces consumers'final consumption of industrial and non-industrial products and raises saving rates;and depresses the real marginal rate of return on capital.Numerical simulation results show if the government applies a policy mix that discriminates against the non-industrial sector while stimulating the industrial sector,then when government increases demand for additional industrial products equaling around 10% of GDP,by strategies such as investing in infrastructure construction,the saving rate will rise by 2.6 percentage points,while the real marginal rate of return on capital will fall by 0.4 percentage points.

关 键 词：工业赶超 储蓄过剩 结构失衡 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济] F124