下垫面要素变化对径流影响的多元统计分析  

Multivariate statistical analysis of influence of underlying surface change on runoff

作　　者：刘俊[1] 尹洋洋 沙晓军 马箐[1] 高颖会[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]江阴市水资源管理办公室,江苏江阴214400

出　　处：《水资源保护》2016年第2期41-44,共4页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41471015)

摘　　要：为提高流域径流预报精度,增加水电站运行效益,选取小湾水电站控制流域为研究对象,根据卫星遥感资料提取的研究区域的1986、1995、2000年土地利用资料和小湾水电站多年入库流量资料,以径流系数为因变量,耕地、林地、建筑用地等下垫面要素为自变量,用SPSS回归模型、非线性回归模型分析径流系数和下垫面要素的回归关系;同时考虑到前一年降雨对下一年径流有一定的影响,加入降雨径流方法,采用3种方法分别对径流系数进行模拟。结果表明:非线性回归模型对径流系数模拟程度较好,可应用于径流预测工作中,提高中小流域的水能利用程度。In order to improve the accuracy of the basin＇ s runoff prediction and increase the efficiency of operation of hydropower stations, the control catchment of the Xiaowan Hydropower Station was selected as a study area. Based on landuse data from the years 1986, 1995, and 2000 taken from remote sensing satellites and multi-year data of reservoir inflow of the Xiaowan Hydropower Station, with the runoff coefficient used as the dependent variable, and arable land, forest land, building land, and other underlying surface factors as independent variables, the regression relation between the underlying surface factors and the runoff coefficient was analyzed with the SPSS regression model and a non-linear regression model. With consideration of the influence of the rainfall in the previous year on the runoff in the following year, the method of rainfall-runoff simulation was adopted. The three methods were used to simulate the runoff coefficient. The results show that the non-linear regression model fits the runoff coefficient better than the other two models, and it can be applied to the prediction of runoff and enhancement of the utilization of hydropower in medium and small-sized basins.

关 键 词：下垫面变化 径流系数 线性回归 非线性回归 降雨径流 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]