中国货币政策综合力度测算及预测研究  

The Measuring and Forecasting of Comprehensive Strength of China's Monetary Policy

作　　者：石华军[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南工业大学商学院,湖南株洲412000

出　　处：《金融经济学研究》2016年第1期37-48,共12页Financial Economics Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71273221;71073133);湖南省教育厅项目(15C0443)

摘　　要：以1992-2013年的季度数据为样本对中国货币政策综合力度进行测算和预测。结果表明,货币政策调控表现出＂前期猛烈,后期平稳＂的走势,并呈现出＂前稳定、中波动、后趋零＂的总态势,反映中国货币政策调控日趋成熟。同时,货币政策综合力度模型较好地捕捉到了＂南巡讲话＂、＂亚洲金融风暴＂前的＂软着陆＂、新一轮经济周期、美国的＂金融风暴＂、财政货币刺激政策后的影响等国内外重大事件;进一步分析发现货币政策综合力度是影响产出和物价水平的首要因素。在坚持综合力度的情况下,预测实际国内生产总值在4-5年后恢复稳定增长水平,并且物价将趋于平稳。By taking the quarterly data from 1992 to 2013,this paper builds a model to measure and forecast the comprehensive strength of China＇s monetary policy. The results find that monetary policy control reveals a trend of ＂ being fierce first and steady next＂ and an overall tendency of ＂ steady in the beginning,fluctuant in the middle and none in the end＂.All of these show that China＇s monetary policy control is becoming more and more mature.The model is also sensitive to significant events,such as ＂ Deng Xiaoping＇s speech in South China＂, ＂ soft landing＂ before Asian Financial Crisis,Financial Crisis in the U. S. etc. both in China and abroad. Further analysis finds that comprehensive strength of monetary policy is the primary factor affecting output and price level. It is estimated that the GDP will keep a steady growth rate and prices of commodities tend to be stable in 4 or 5 years.

关 键 词：货币政策综合力度 测算 预测 SVAR模型 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]