基于金融稳定因素的中国货币政策传导效应研究  

The Study on Transmission Effect of China's Monetary Policy Based on Financial Stability Factor

作　　者：刘玚[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津财经大学经济学院,天津300222

出　　处：《金融经济学研究》2016年第1期60-71,共12页Financial Economics Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71173151);天津市哲学社会科学研究规划项目(TJYY15-011)

摘　　要：利用2004-2014年金融体系稳健性相关指标构建金融稳定指数,并以此为基础,采用TVP-VAR模型分析含有金融稳定因素的货币政策传导效果的实证结果表明,货币供给的正向冲击一方面在短期会造成金融体系不稳定因素积聚,这种积聚效应会对实体经济产生先正后负的影响;另一方面在长期由于对金融稳定因素影响作用甚微,不会通过其对实体经济带来显著影响。因此,货币当局应在盯住长期货币稳定目标的基础上,注重短期金融不稳定因素的过度集聚对货币政策的负面影响,最终实现货币稳定与金融稳定的双重目标。By incorporating the factor of financial stability into monetary policy framework,this paper attempts to find the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. Our study shows that,positive shock from money supply may cause the financial instability in the short run,but the economy would suffer a continuous negative shock for a long time. And because a positive shock from money supply has little impact on financial stability in the long run,monetary policy will not have negative impact on the real economy through financial stability factor. With the aim of long-term financial stability,monetary authorities should pay attention to the negative effect of financial instability on monetary policy to achieve both monetary stability and financial stability.

关 键 词：金融稳定 货币稳定 传导效应 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]