全球价值链视角的中国对外贸易不平衡及其结构研究  

Chinese Foreign Trade Imbalance and Its Structural Decomposition Analysis in Global Value Chain

作　　者：陈继勇[1] 余罡[1] 葛明[2] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430072 [2]西南大学经济管理学院,重庆400715

出　　处：《经济管理》2016年第4期1-11,共11页Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大攻关项目"后金融危机时代中国参与全球经济再平衡战略与路径研究"(11&ZD008);国家社会科学基金重大项目"全球产业链转移新趋势下的中国出口价值链提升举措研究"(15ZDA061);国家社会科学基金项目"经济全球化背景下我国对外贸易利益分配研究"(11BJY113)

摘　　要：本文在多区域投入产出框架下,通过构建一国对外贸易不平衡的全球价值链分解模型,结合1995—2011年世界投入产出数据,测度了中国进出口贸易的结构,从贸易增加值视角解析了贸易不平衡的商品结构、国别结构和产业结构。研究表明,剔除国外转移增加值净值的影响后,中国对外贸易大体保持平衡,不少年份处于逆差状态;最终产品保持巨额顺差,而中间产品却逆差明显,商品失衡结构特征鲜明;顺差主要源于欧美等发达经济体,而逆差则集中于东亚地区和新兴经济体国家,国别失衡结构有偏性扩大;顺差主要来自制造业部门,而初级产品、资源产品以及大部分服务业部门处于逆差状态,产业失衡集中度比较高。Global value chain forms with deepening of international production division of labor and close con- tact of the global sales network, the typical feature is that the value of goods and services does not belong to a parti- cular country, but is shared by all countries on the production and sales chain, which is greatly different from the traditional international division of labor. In the context of global value chain, the international trade volume in the field of commodity circulation counted by one country＇ s customs is always different from the actual amount of import and export in that country, which cau- ses the considerable variation between gross amount foreign trade imbalance and practical value diversion differ- ence. Therefore, on the background of realistic characteristic of global value chain, it is necessary to apply the in- put-output analysis method and value added statistic criterion to recount the source of value of import and export in one country. The exact scale of foreign trade imbalance, and industrial structure commodity structure in that coun- try can be calculated accordingly. Under the framework of multi-region input-output tables and using world input-output database during 1995-- 2011, this paper constructs a structural decomposition model of foreign trade imbalance in perspective of global val- ue chain, estimates one country＇s trade imbalance and its structural decomposition from three levels which include commodity structure, nation difference and industrial structure. Moreover, this paper measures and decomposes the total foreign trade imbalance amount of China to find out the source of domestic and foreign value, and to figure out the intermediate product trade value of different directions in that country. Results show that ： due to the impact of the value diversion, Chinese export value added rate is far higher than the import value added rate. During the sample period, Chinese export value added rate approximately equals to the import value added rate, thus China is r

关 键 词：全球价值链 贸易不平衡 价值转移 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]