宁镇扬丘陵区土地利用景观格局演变与模拟  

Evolution and simulation of land-use landscape pattern in Ning-Zhen-Yang hilly area

作　　者：张荣天[1] 焦华富[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽师范大学国土资源与旅游学院,安徽芜湖241003

出　　处：《测绘科学》2016年第3期85-90,共6页Science of Surveying and Mapping

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41171144);国家社会科学基金项目(14BSH036);安徽师范大学2014年度研究生科研创新项目(2014yks084zd)

摘　　要：针对CA模型不能长期预测和Markov模型不能反映空间格局变化的不足,本文运用CA-Markov耦合模型,结合动态度模型、景观格局指数及PCA法,定量揭示宁镇扬丘陵区镇江市的土地利用景观格局演变特征、驱动机制及变化趋势,为区域土地利用规划及调整提供参考。结果表明:镇江市土地利用景观格局时空演变愈加复杂;人口增长、经济发展、城镇化及农业技术进步是土地利用景观格局演变的主要驱动力;到2030年镇江市城区周边建设用地将增加25.58%,而耕地、林地等景观类型将不断锐减。Aiming at the problem that CA model could not long-term predict and Markov model could not reflect the spatial pattern change, the paper used CA-Markov coupled mode, combined with the land- scape pattern index, dynamic model and PCA method to quantitatively reveal the landscape pattern evolu- tion characteristics and the trend of simulation in Zhenjiang city, so as to provide a reference for regional land use planning and adjustment. Results showed that. land use landscape time-space pattern evolution were increasingly complex; population growth, economic development, urbanization and agricultural technology progress together drove the landscape pattern evolution; by 2030, the construction land in ur- banization surrounding area would increase 25.58%, meanwhile, the cultivated land, other agricultural land and forest land landscape would respectively decrease.

关 键 词：土地利用 景观格局 演变 CA-Markov 模拟 宁镇扬丘陵区 镇江市 

分 类 号：P208[天文地球—地图制图学与地理信息工程]