当前国际经济深度调整的表现、原因及对策分析  

The Causes of Profound Adjustment of International Economyand China's Countermeasures

作　　者：张慧莲[1] 

机构地区：[1]外交学院国际经济学院

出　　处：《亚太经济》2016年第2期3-10,共8页Asia-Pacific Economic Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金2015年第二批应急管理项目"全球经济调整对通货紧缩预期的影响机制研究"(项目编号:71541017);中央高校基本科研业务经费专项资金(项目编号:3162014ZYKB04)的资助

摘　　要：2007-2008年美国"次贷危机"引发全球金融危机以来,国际经济出现深度调整。当前,国际经济形势空前复杂:主要发达经济体复苏仍然缓慢,新兴市场和发展中经济体增速下滑,全球经济或将处于长期放缓之中;通货膨胀和通货紧缩并存,结构性改革任重道远。国际经济深度调整既有结构性原因,也有周期性原因。在梳理并分析了五种解释国际经济调整的理论依据后,提出了相应的对策建议:合理释放人民币贬值压力;长远考虑人民币国际化战略,加强宏观审慎监管,保持金融系统稳定;加快供给侧结构改革,夯实经济增长的质量;综合运用财政货币政策,防止总需求过度萎缩;重视预期管理,避免市场过度恐慌,熨平市场波动。In the wake of the global financial crisis due to the subprime crisis in America since 2007--2008, the world has seen profound adjustment within global economy. The current global economic situation is considerably complex. With major developed countries undergoing a weak recovery and emerging and developing countries experiencing a slowdown in terms of their growth, weak growth may maintain for a long time. Inflation and deflation coexist and achieving structure reform success is a long and arduous task. After an eight--year re- covery period from the Global Crisis, Macroeconomic policy has been severely overdrawn. There are both struc- tural and cyclical reasons for the international economic adjustments. This paper combs and analyzes five kinds of theories to explain the adjustments, and puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions. They include rationally venting RMB depreciation pressure; thinking about strategy of RMB internationalization in the long term and strengthening macro--prudential supervision to keep financial system stable; speeding up the supply--side structural reform and reinforcing the quality of economic growth; integrating use of fiscal and monetary policy to prevent excessive shrinking of aggregate demand; paying adequate attention to the expectation management to avoid excessive market panic and mitigate market volatility.

关 键 词：国际经济 资本流动 汇率 宏观审慎监管 货币政策 

分 类 号：F746[经济管理—国际贸易]