The Estimation of Water Supply and Demand in Hotan Oasis  

新疆和田绿洲水资源供需预估(英文)

作　　者：杨依天[1] 杨佳禾 魏胜利[3] 

机构地区：[1]河北民族师范学院,河北承德067000 [2]四川师范大学,四川成都610068 [3]承德市第七中学,河北承德067200

出　　处：《Agricultural Science & Technology》2016年第3期742-746,750,共6页农业科学与技术（英文版）

基　　金：Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program,2010CB955905);the Fund of Chengde Municipal Finance Bureau(CZ2013004)~~

摘　　要：[Objective] The purpose of this study is to estimate water supply and demand, which can provide a basis for how to allocate rationally water resources in Hotan Oasis. [Method] The water supply and demand in Hotan Oasis in the next15 years were calculated according to water-soil balance. [Result] When the runoff of Hotan River is at a probability of 50%（P=50 for short）, the total water resource is 50.57×10^8m^3, and there is only 33.13×10^8m^3available for social and economics,but there would be a need of 33.44×10^8and 36.06×10^8m^3, and the water shortage would be 1.31 ×10^8and 2.93 ×10^8m^3in 2020 and 2030 respectively. When P =75,the total water resource is 44.30×10^8m^3, there is only 29.39×10^8m^3water available for social and economics. However, there would be a need of 31.43 ×10^8and33.11×10^8m^3, and the water shortage would be 2.04×10^8and 3.72×10^8m^3in 2020 and 2030, respectively. [Conclusion] The problem of water shortage would be serious over the next 15 years, and the fragile ecosystem would be destroyed dramatically with the large-scale land reclamation against natural laws. Hence, the effective policies and measures should be taken timely to prohibit reclamation and to cope with ongoing water shortage, based on the water supply and demand estimation under the background of climate change.[目的]预估未来和田绿洲水资源供给与需求,为研究区水资源合理利用及调配提供理论依据。[方法]利用水土平衡法预测未来15年不同水概率条件下和田绿洲的水资源总量和需水量。[结果]当来水概率P=50%时,和田绿洲水资源总量为50.57×10~8m^3,用于社会经济等方面的水资源量仅为33.13×10~8m^3,而2020年、2030年研究区社会经济等方面的需水量将分别为33.44×10~8、36.06×10~8m^3,缺水量为1.31×10~8、2.93×10~8m^3。当来水概率P=75%时,和田绿洲水资源总量为44.30×10~8m^3,用于社会经济等方面的水资源量仅为29.39×10~8m^3,2020年、2030年研究区社会经济等方面的需水量将分别为31.43×10~8、33.11×10~8m^3,缺水量为2.04×10~8、3.72×10~8m^3。[结论]综合考虑气候变化、社会经济发展及节水技术应用等多种因素影响,未来和田绿洲水资源问题将日趋严峻。河流中上游耕地扩张,区间耗水量激增是水资源供需矛盾加剧的主要原因,建议未来绿洲开发在实施高效节水措施的同时,控制耕地面积,严禁各种名义的开荒。

关 键 词：ESTIMATION Water-soil balance Water supply and demand Hotan Oasis 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]