重大生产安全事故的网络舆情传播分析及其政策建议——以“8·12天津港爆炸事故”为例  

The Analysis and Policy Recommendations on the Spread of Network Public Opinion in Major Production Safety Accidents——A Case Study of the 8·12 Tianjin Port Explosion

作　　者：刘怡君[1] 陈思佳[1,2] 黄远[1,2] 马宁[1] 王光辉[1] 牛文元[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所社会治理与风险研究中心,北京100190 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100190

出　　处：《管理评论》2016年第3期221-229,共9页Management Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目（71573247;71503246;91024010;91324009）; 中国科学院青年创新促进会项目（2014139）

摘　　要：＂8·12天津港爆炸＂属于生产安全类中特别重大事故,党中央和国务院高度重视。事故发生后,应急处置工作稳步推进,而与此同时,互联网上的舆情阵地却快速陷落,成为＂8·12天津港爆炸＂事故的重要次生灾害。因此,本文以＂8·12＂事故引发的网络舆情为分析对象,基于该舆情传播的几大特征,建立集主体、信息、心理、观点四种要素的多层多属性舆情传播模型,应用仿真工具进行多情景分析,全面获取此类重大突发事件的舆情形成及演化规律,据此提出重大生产安全事故类突发事件的舆情处置建议。The 8·12 Tianjin Port Explosion is an extremely serious accident belonging to the category of production safety,In addition,it has been paid great attention by the Party Central Committee and the State Council. After the occurrence of this accident,the emergency disposal was steadily progressing. However,in the meantime,network opinions focusing on this event got out of control rapidly,which had been one of the primary secondary disasters of the Tianjin Port Explosion. Therefore,this paper sets the network opinion caused by the 8·12 Tianjin Port Explosion as the analysis object,and based on some main characteristics of this network public opinion spread,builds a multilayer and multi-attribute model of public opinion spread which contains agent,information,psychology,opinion property,then applies simulation tool for scenario analysis,which aims to comprehensively obtain the opinion public formation and evolution rule of this kind of major emergency accidents,Finally,proposes some disposal recommendations of public opinion in major accident belonging to the category of production safety.

关 键 词：网络舆情 多层多属性舆情传播模型 仿真建模 政策建议 

分 类 号：D63[政治法律—政治学]