环境变化下长江荆南三口径流变化特征检测与归因分析  

Feature Detection and Attribution Analysis of Runoff Variation in the Three Outlets of Southern Jingjiang River Under Environmental Changes

作　　者：帅红[1] 李景保[1] 何霞[2] 刘雯[1] 陈永林[1] 龙岳红[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南师范大学资源与环境科学学院,长沙410081 [2]中国科学院青藏高原研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《水土保持学报》2016年第1期83-88,共6页Journal of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41571100);湖南省重点学科(地理学)建设项目

摘　　要：依据长江中游荆南三口河系1951—2014年实测原型水文气候资料,在分析环境变化的基础上,定量分解不同时间尺度气候因素和人类活动对径流量变化影响的贡献率。结果表明:(1)以荆南三口及周边地区降水量减小,长江干流来水量逐期减少,水位降低,荆南三口河系断流天数呈波动性增加为标志的环境变化导致了荆南三口河系径流逐期减少;(2)荆南三口河系径流量在长时间序列上呈波动性增减变化,而在不同时间尺度上却呈逐期减少趋势。径流量与降水量变化的突变年份均为1958年,1972年和1998年;(3)以1951—1958年为基准年,1959—1972年,1973—1998年,1999—2014年3个时段降水量波动对径流量变化影响的贡献率依次为26.71%,2.9%,7.05%,人类活动(主要是重大水利工程)对各时期径流量变化影响的贡献率分别为73.29%,97.10%,92.95%。Based on the hydrological and climatic data（from 1951 to 2014）of the three outlets of southern Jingjiang River system and the analyses of environmental changes,this study quantitatively analyzed the contribution rates of climatic factors and human activities on the changes of runoff volume at different time scales.The results are shown as follows：（1）Environmental changes,marked by the decrease in rainfall amount of the three outlets of Jingjiang River and the surrounding areas,the reduction in runoff of Yangtze River and the water level lowering,as well as the fluctuating increase of no-flow days of Jingjiang River,led to the gradual decrease in runoff of the three outlets of southern Jingjing River.（2）The runoff amount of the three outlets of southern Jingjing River changed with the fluctuant increase and decrease along the long time series,but it gradually lowered in different time scales.The turning-point years of runoff and rainfall amount were 1958,1972 and 1998.（3）On the basis of 1951—1958,the contribution rates of rainfall fluctuation to the variation of runoff in 3periods（1959—1972,1973—1998and 1999—2014）were 26.71%,2.9% and7.05%,respectively,while the contribution rates of human activities,which were mainly the large-scale water conservancy projects,were 73.29%,97.10% and 92.95%,respectively.

关 键 词：径流变化 降水量 贡献率 人类活动 荆南三口 

分 类 号：P333.4[天文地球—水文科学]