产流误差动态系统响应曲线修正方法的应用  

Application of Runoff Error Correction Based on Dynamic System Response Curve

作　　者：束慧连 包为民[1,2] 杨姗姗[1] 刘可新[1] 赵丽平[1] 杨小强[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水力发电》2016年第4期22-26,共5页Water Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(51279057/41371048/51479062);国家自然科学基金重大项目(51190090);国家自然科学基金重大项目子项目(51190091);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(2014B35314)

摘　　要：动态系统响应曲线修正方法(Dynamic System Response Curve,DSRC)是一种基于微分响应的有明确物理意义并且有效的实时修正新方法,属于向误差源头进行修正的方法。通过计算产流的系统响应曲线对产流系列进行修正,实现流量过程的修正。将该方法与新安江模型相结合应用于闽江上游的水吉流域,并将修正效果与递推最小二乘法进行了比较。利用水吉流域29场洪水资料进行模拟和修正,结果表明该方法可以有效提高洪水预报的精度,且其效果优于递推最小二乘法。The correction method of Dynamic System Response Curve（ DSRC） is a new real-time correction method that is based on differentiation and is with clear physical meaning. This method can trace back to the source of error. The dynamic system response curve of runoff is calculated and then it is used to correct the runoff, and eventually, the correction of flood process is realized. To verify the correction effectiveness of DSRC method, it is combined with the Xin＇anjiang model and is tested in Shuiji Basin of Minjiang River, and the method is also compared to the recursive least square method. Total 29 floods in Shuiji Basin are calculated and corrected, and the results of correction show that the correction method of dynamic system response curve has a remarkable effect in improving the accuracy of flood forecasting and it is more effective than the recursive least square method.

关 键 词：产流误差 动态系统响应曲线 水吉流域 

分 类 号：TV121.7[水利工程—水文学及水资源]