基于过程降雨的暴雨灾害危险性评估——以松花江流域为例  

Risk Assessment of Rainstorm Disaster Based on Process Rainfall:A Case Study of Songhua River Basin

作　　者：范擎宇 何福红[1] 马国斌[2] 王秀荣 王莉萍 蒋卫国[4] 

机构地区：[1]鲁东大学地理与规划学院,山东烟台264025 [2]浙江工商大学旅游与城市管理学院,浙江杭州310018 [3]国家气象中心,北京100081 [4]北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京100875

出　　处：《地理与地理信息科学》2016年第2期100-104,110,共6页Geography and Geo-Information Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41171318;41001160;41471223);国家气象中心项目

摘　　要：以松花江流域2013年8月15-17日过程降雨为例,从致灾因子和孕灾环境两方面,选取过程降雨强度、过程降雨历时、海拔高程、地形高程标准差、河网密度、植被覆盖度、土壤类型等指标,构建暴雨灾害危险性评价指标体系。采用基于加速遗传算法的层次分析法(AGA-AHP),通过一致性检验函数优化计算权重,基于自然灾害危险的数学方法计算危险性指数,运用ArcGIS中的自然断点分级法(Natural Breaks)进行等级划分,开展危险性评估与分析。结果表明:暴雨灾害危险性区域整体上分布在吉林省中部和东南部以及黑龙江省的东部和西南部,覆盖面积约为157 539km2,其中吉林省西北部的大安市、乾安县和以桦甸市为中心的东南大部分县市属于该次暴雨的高危地带,占地面积为20 774km2。This paper studied the rainfall process of Songhua River Basin between August 15 th and 17 th in 2013.Considering the hazard factors and hazard formative environment comprehensively,the risk assessment index system of flood disasters was constructed based on rainfall intensity,rainfall duration,elevation,elevation standard deviation,drainage density,soil type and other factors.Using accelerated genetic algorithm of analytic hierarchy process method（AGA-AHP）,optimizing assign the weight of each index by consistent index function,calculating risk index by mathematical methods of natural disaster risk,then applying Natural Breaks in ArcGIS to rank risk level,the risk assessment and analysis was done finally.The result indicates that the disaster-prone areas are mainly concentrated in the middle and southeast of Jilin Province and the east and southwest of Heilongjiang Province,covering about 157 539km2;the high risk area includes Da′an,Qian′an,southeastern cities around Huadian of Jilin Province,covering 20 774km2.

关 键 词：过程降雨 暴雨灾害 危险性评估 松花江流域 

分 类 号：P458.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]