气候移民动力机制:基于混合研究范式的宁夏案例  

Dynamics of Climate Change-Induced Migration:A Case from Ningxia with Mixed Methods Research

作　　者：郑艳[1,2] 孟慧新[1] 谢欣露[1] 石尚柏[2] 范建荣[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所,北京100028 [2]中国社会科学院可持续发展研究中心,北京100028 [3]宁夏北方民族大学,宁夏银川750021

出　　处：《中国软科学》2016年第3期62-72,共11页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目<适应气候变化治理机制:中国东西部地区案例比较研究>(编号:71203231);中国科协IRDR-CHINA项目<气候变化;干旱与移民--动力机制及风险评估>;"中-英-瑞士中国适应气候变化项目(ACCC)"

摘　　要：我国西部地区是典型的气候变化和生态环境敏感地区,也是气候贫困和气候移民高发地区。本文以宁夏作为典型案例,采用定性与定量方法、探索性分析与验证性分析相结合的混合研究设计,对气候变化引发贫困和移民的复杂动力机制进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,气候变化脆弱性是影响气候移民的内在驱动力,长期气候和环境变化导致的气候容量匮乏是引发宁夏中南部地区气候贫困和气候移民的最关键驱动因素,其它影响因素包括社会经济发展水平、人力资本、交通基础设施、教育发展水平等。本文构建了气候移民动力机制的DPSIR理论分析框架,提出了衡量气候容量、气候贫困的具体指标,可以此甄别出中国西部地区的"气候贫困型"生态移民,并为制定与实施地区移民和发展规划提供科学依据。The western China is vulnerable to climate and environmental change,where exist a large proportion of climate poverty population and would-be climate change-induced migrants. Take Ningxia as an example,this article builds a dynamics of climate poverty and rural migration under climate change based on mixed methods paradigm integrating with qualitative and quantitative methods,exploratory and confirmative research. The research result reveals that climate change vulnerability is the key driving factor of climate migration. Climate carrying capacity exacerbated by long term climatic and environmental change is the most important determinant on addressing climate poverty and climate migration of the Middle and Southern Ningxia. The other determinants include socio-economic development,human capital,transport,education,and so on. This article proposes a DPSIR analytical framework on the dynamics of climate migration so as to identify the＂climate poverty migrants＂,and a list of indicators of climate carrying capacity and climate poverty,are indentified to support regional planning on development and migration.

关 键 词：气候变化脆弱性 气候移民 气候贫困 气候容量 混合研究 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学] F205