发展道路上的再次迷失——2015年拉美地区形势综述  

Latin American and the Caribbean Situation in 2015

作　　者：高波[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学拉美研究中心

出　　处：《拉丁美洲研究》2016年第1期1-14,154,共14页Journal of Latin American Studies

摘　　要：2015年的拉美形势总体不佳,经济、政治、社会领域均出现阶段性变化,标志着一个发展周期的结束。受不利的国际经济大趋势影响,拉美经济出现多年来的首次负增长,巴西、阿根廷、墨西哥等地区大国整体低迷,债务、金融风险上升。但有巨额外汇储备"托底",短期内尚不至发展为经济危机。拉美国家经济依然缺乏自主增长能力,难以有效应对外部冲击。政治局势虽保持了总体稳定,但在经济萧条和人口结构变化的双重冲击下,政治格局发生重大变化,阿根廷、委内瑞拉、巴西左翼政党均遭重挫,对新型社会主义道路的探索明显受阻,拉美政治风向出现"右转"势头。政治抗议活动强度上升,其中青年的政治参与问题日益突出,成为拉美政治中的重要议题和最大的不确定因素,并将产生深远影响。社会结构的优化未取得决定性进展,中产阶级仍相对弱小。受经济形势影响,社会状况连年改善的势头逆转。拉美地区的对外关系延续了多元化的势头,伴随着中拉关系、美拉关系竞争性的增强,拉美国家有望再次成为大国竞逐的对象,发展对外关系面临更多选择和机遇。In 2015, there were major changes economically, politically and socially in Latin America and the Caribbean,signifying the end of a development cycle. Impacted by unfavorable international economic factors, some regional countries including Brazil,Argentina and Mexico witnessed negative growth for the first time in tens of years. Relied on comparatively large foreign reserves accumulated during the past decade,they could avoid an economic crisis in short term. There has been a deep change in political equilibrium as a result of economic depression and the transformation of demographical structure, which triggered more social demonstrations in Argentina, Brazil and Venezuela. Increasingly active political participation of the youth has become one of the major uncertain factors in regional politics. A large portion of population were suffering from frustrations caused by miserable economic situation and calling for more radical political changes. Due to economic depression and less financial resources, investment for social development was much reduced. Regional countries maintained their pluralist position in international relations,seeking to develop all-round and balanced relations with major powers including China and the United States.

关 键 词：拉美形势 左翼政党 经济周期 政治周期 “愤青时代” 社会冲突 多元外交 

分 类 号：D877[政治法律—政治学]