基于随机突变的员工反生产行为定性模拟研究  

Qualitative simulation on staff counterproductive work behaviors based on stochastic catastrophe theory

作　　者：赵旭[1,2] 胡斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学管理学院,武汉430074 [2]三峡大学经济与管理学院,宜昌443002

出　　处：《管理科学学报》2016年第2期13-30,共18页Journal of Management Sciences in China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71401090;71271093;71232001);湖北省教育厅人文社会科学基金资助项目(15Q037)

摘　　要：反生产行为作为影响员工行为绩效和组织稳定性的关键因素,已成为当前企业最为关切的现实问题之一.结合以往员工反生产行为的相关研究以及在管理现实中凸显的突变特征,在考虑人的心理行为扰动的基础上,从随机突变理论的全新视角构建了员工反生产行为随机尖点突变模型,并分析了反生产行为的非线性演化过程.在运用Cuspfit方法验证突变模型的合理性并进行参数估计后,引入定性模拟理论,将静态严格的随机突变模型转化为能解决模糊的、不确定性的问题的半定性突变模拟模型.最后在Matlab平台上实现该模拟系统,通过虚拟实验对中国某OEM企业面临的员工反生产行为困局进行动态分析.实验结果从企业科学管理模式、员工甄选及情绪管理、反生产行为的危害控制和补救措施等方面为组织反生产行为管理问题提供决策支持.The problem of counterproductive work behavior（ CWB） as the key factors that influence the enterprise＇s performance and the organizational stability has become one of the realist questions that concern modern enterprises the most. By analyzing the mutation characteristics of staff CWB and reviewing former related studies,this article constructs a stochastic Cusp catastrophe model of staff CWB from a new perspective of stochastic catastrophe theory by considering the psychological random disturbance,and then studies the nonlinear evolutionary process of CWB. After validating the catastrophe model and estimating parameters by Cuspfit,the article translates the static and strict stochastic catastrophe model to the dynamic Semi-quantitative cusp model by introducing the qualitative simulation,and then applies to the fuzzy and uncertain prediction research of staff CWB. In the end,we use Matlab to program the simulation system and carry out the dynamic analysis for the CWB problem of a Chinese original equipment manufacturer. We also put forward the avoidance mechanism and control strategy form the aspects of the business management model,employee selection,mood management,hazard degree of control and remedial measure with the virtual experiment. The results of the experiment contribute some suggestions to the management issues of CWB.

关 键 词：反生产行为 随机突变理论 定性模拟 决策支持 

分 类 号：C931[经济管理—管理学]