Bayesian Assessment for Reliability of Binomial Components Based on Information Fusion of Similar Products  

作　　者：张洋 陈浩 蒋平 郭波 

机构地区：[1]College of Information Systems and Management,National University of Defense Technology

出　　处：《Journal of Donghua University(English Edition)》2015年第6期940-945,共6页东华大学学报（英文版）

基　　金：National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71371182)

摘　　要：A modified Bayesian reliability assessment method of binomial components was proposed by fusing prior information of similar products.The traditional Bayesian method usually directly used all the prior data,ignoring the differences between them,which might decrease the credibility level of reliability evaluation and result in data submergence.To solve the problem,a revised approach was derived to calculate groups of prior data's quantitative credibility,used for weighted data fusion.Then inheritance factor was introduced to build a mixed beta distribution to illustrate the innovation of new products.However,in many cases,inheritance factor was determined by Chi-square test that could not give out exact result with respect to rare failures.To make the model more precise,Barnard's exact test was suggested being used to calculate the inheritance factor.A numerical example is given to demonstrate that the modified method is successful and rational,while the classical method is too conservative and the traditional Bayesian method is too risky.A modified Bayesian reliability assessment method of binomial components was proposed by fusing prior information of similar products.The traditional Bayesian method usually directly used all the prior data,ignoring the differences between them,which might decrease the credibility level of reliability evaluation and result in data submergence.To solve the problem,a revised approach was derived to calculate groups of prior data＇s quantitative credibility,used for weighted data fusion.Then inheritance factor was introduced to build a mixed beta distribution to illustrate the innovation of new products.However,in many cases,inheritance factor was determined by Chi-square test that could not give out exact result with respect to rare failures.To make the model more precise,Barnard＇s exact test was suggested being used to calculate the inheritance factor.A numerical example is given to demonstrate that the modified method is successful and rational,while the classical method is too conservative and the traditional Bayesian method is too risky.

关 键 词：Bayesian reliability assessment information fusion CREDIBILITY inheritance factor mixed beta distribution 

分 类 号：O213.2[理学—概率论与数理统计]