基于有效雨量的鹰厦铁路降雨诱发滑坡预警预报概率模型  

Rainfall-induced landslide of Yingxia railway forcasting and warning models based on effective precipitation

作　　者：周雨 刘志萍 盛志军[2] 张国平[3] 

机构地区：[1]江西省气象服务中心,江西南昌330046 [2]江西省气象台,江西南昌330046 [3]中国气象局公共气象服务中心,北京100081

出　　处：《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2016年第1期22-25,共4页The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40971016)

摘　　要：大气降雨是造成铁路滑坡的重要诱因。文章以浅层滑坡SHALSTAB模型为基础,以鹰厦铁路为研究区域,研究了降雨诱发铁路滑坡的机理,进一步分析滑坡与有效雨量的关系。结合滑坡概率预报模型,计算鹰厦铁路降雨诱发滑坡临界雨量,并对研究区的滑坡灾害危险性进行了预警分级。Atmosphere rainfall is an important induced reason that cause railway landslide. Based on shallow layer landslide SHALSTAB model,studying the mechanism of landslide induced by rainfall in Ying Xia railway as the study region,and thus further analysis on the relationship of landslide and effective precipitation can be obtained. By referring to the landslide probability forcasting model,this paper calculated the critical precipitation of landslide induced by Ying Xia railway rainfall,forcast and warned the danger of landslide disasters in study region.

关 键 词：降雨 铁路滑坡 有效雨量 预报预警 

分 类 号：P642.72[天文地球—工程地质学]