三峡库区某滑坡变形影响因素的灰色关联分析  

Deformation influence factors of a landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir area based on grey correlation analysis

作　　者：代贞伟[1] 魏云杰[2] 吕韬 罗建华 姚望 

机构地区：[1]长安大学地质工程与测绘学院,陕西西安710054 [2]中国地质环境监测院,北京100081 [3]重庆市地质矿产勘查开发局南江水文地质工程地质队,重庆401121

出　　处：《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2016年第1期32-37,共6页The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control

基　　金："十二五"国家科技支撑项目(2012BAK10B01);国家自然科学基金项目(41172254);中国地质调查局基金项目(1212011220124)

摘　　要：有效利用滑坡监测资料掌握滑坡变形特征及其影响因素的主次关系是开展滑坡变形预测及工程治理的重要前提。因此,以三峡库区某滑坡为研究对象,基于滑坡位移监测、降雨量和库水位变化相关资料,对滑坡变形特征进行分析,研究表明该滑坡的变形与库水位下降及集中降雨具有明显的相关性;在此基础上,以滑坡位移变形速率为系统特征变量,选取当月降雨量、前两月降雨量、月库水位下降量、库水位下降速率为相关因素变量,运用灰色关联分析方法研究了系统特征变量与相关因素变量之间的响应程度,由灰色关联度的分析结果可知,前两月降雨量与当月降雨量、与该滑坡变形速率的响应程度最高,该滑坡变形的最大影响因素为降雨量,其次为库水位下降。鉴于此,建议进一步完善滑坡区排水系统,采取相应的工程防治措施。The landslide deformation characteristic and the primary and secondary relations of influencing factors,based on the effective utilization of landslide monitoring data,is the important prerequisite of landslide deformation forecast and engineering control measures. Taking a landslide in three gorges reservoir area for the research object,based on the related information of landslide displacement monitoring,rainfall and water level change,characteristics of landslide deformation is analyzed,research shows that the landslide deformation has intense correlation with water level decline and concentrated rainfall. Considering the landslide displacement deformation rate as the system characteristic variable,and selecting the monthly rainfall,two months rainfall,the drawdown of reservoir water level per month,water level decline rate as related factors variables,the response degree between the system characteristic variable and the related factors variables is studied by the method of grey correlation analysis. The gray correlation analysis shows that variables of the two months rainfall and monthly rainfall have the highest response degree with the landslide deformation rate,the biggest influencefactor of landslide deformation is rainfall,followed by water level decline. In view of this,it is suggested to strengthen the landslide drainage system,and to take corresponding engineering measures.

关 键 词：三峡库区 顺层基岩滑坡 变形特征 影响因素 灰色关联 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]