RES理论在煤与瓦斯突出危险性预测中的应用  

An application of RES theory in risk prediction of coal and gas outburst

作　　者：黄琪嵩[1] 程久龙[2] 贾吉喆 周项通 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学(北京)资源与安全工程学院,北京100083 [2]中国矿业大学(北京)煤炭资源与安全开采国家重点实验室,北京100083

出　　处：《辽宁工程技术大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第3期248-253,共6页Journal of Liaoning Technical University (Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51174210);高等院校博士学科点专项科研基金项目(20120023110014)

摘　　要：为提高煤与瓦斯突出危险性预测的准确性,引入岩石工程系统理论,利用交互作用矩阵描述各影响因素间的作用关系,通过因果分析图来分析各因素的交互作用强度和参数优势特性.同时建立基于岩石工程系统理论的煤与瓦斯突出预测模型,并对预测结果进行验证.研究结果表明:该方法具有较高的准确性及可信性,能够有效地预测煤与瓦斯突出的危险性.In order to improve the accuracy of prediction of coal and gas outburst hazard, this paper proposes the rock engineering systems（RES） approach. The RES approach uses the interaction matrix to describe the general concept of the influences, utilizes the cause-effect（C-E） plot to evaluate the weights and interaction of factors affecting each other on the coal and gas outburst. Then a new model for risk prediction of coal and gas outburst is presented based on rock engineering systems, and the prediction results are verified by some examples. Results indicate that the RES model has a high accuracy and creditability for risk prediction of coal and gas outburst.

关 键 词：岩石工程系统 煤与瓦斯突出 危险性预测 交互作用矩阵 因果分析图 

分 类 号：TD713[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]