地方财政收入负增长现象、影响因素及量化测度:以辽宁为例  

Influencing Factor and Quantitative Estimate of the Negative Growth Phenomenon of Local Finance Revenue——Taking Liaoning Province as an Example

作　　者：王振宇[1] 郭艳娇[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁省财政科学研究所

出　　处：《财贸经济》2016年第4期18-29,共12页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"优化分税制财政管理体制研究"(11BJY130);辽宁省财政科研基金项目"辽宁财政可持续发展研究"(05A001)

摘　　要：地方财政作为国家财政的重要组成部分,自分税制以来其收入规模占全国的"半壁江山",更是地方各级政府行使职权的重要物质基础。近年来,地方财政收入高速增长的"红利"正在弱化,由两位数的高增长演化为个位数,甚至在某些地方出现了负增长的现象,这其中以老工业基地省份辽宁最为典型。这一新的波动现象,是多因素综合作用的结果。本文运用相关理论、方法,借鉴现有研究成果,通过采集大量数据,以辽宁为样本分时段(一季度、上半年、前三季度)量化测算了各因素对地方财政负增长的具体影响程度。量化研究表明,2014年辽宁虚增收入大约为800亿元,在2015年负增长影响因素中,做实财政收入强度最大、经济因素次之、政策性因素最小。As an important part of national finance, local fiscal revenue accounts for half of the national revenue since the tax sharing reform. It is also the important base of local governments discharging their functions and powers. In recent years, the ＂dividend＂ of high-speed growth of local fiscal revenue is diminishing with a change from double-digit growth to single digit growth. Negative growth of fiscal revenue even appears in some provinces such as Liaoning. This paper analyzes the influencing factor of the negative growth phenomenon and quantitatively estimates the degree of all kinds of relative factors based on Liaoning sample. The results show that the counterfeit fiscal revenue in 2014 is about 80 billion yuan; among all the influencing factors on negative fiscal revenue growth in 2015, the clearance of the counterfeit fiscal income is the main/actor, followed by economic and policy factors. At last, this paper proposes some countermeasures and suggestions.

关 键 词：地方财政收入 负增长现象 ARMA模型 量化测度 

分 类 号：F812.7[经济管理—财政学]