流通业在城镇化促进农业现代化发展中的门槛效应  

Threshold Effect of Circulation Industry in the Development of Agricultural Modernization Promoted by Urbanization

作　　者：丁宁[1] 徐从才[2] 

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院,233030 [2]南京财经大学国际经贸学院,210046

出　　处：《财贸经济》2016年第4期149-160,F0003,共13页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“基于流通创新的贸易增长方式转变研究”(70973049);安徽省哲学社会科学项目“流通创新保障安徽农产品质量安全研究”(AHSKQ2014D38)

摘　　要：城镇化与农业现代化协调发展是缩小我国城乡二元结构差距的重要举措。本文阐释了流通业在"两化"发展中门槛效应的理论框架,提出研究假说,并运用门槛模型对中国2000-2013年省际面板数据进行实证分析,考察流通业在城镇化促进农业现代化发展中的门槛效应特征。结果表明,流通业发展水平显著影响城镇在区域经济中集聚的稳定性,反映流通业发展水平的各变量在城镇化促进农业现代化中均呈现明显的门槛效应特征。当流通业发展水平未达到门槛条件时,城镇化对农业现代化的促进作用不显著;当流通业发展水平达到门槛条件后,城镇化会对农业现代化产生显著的促进作用。This paper explores the theoretical framework of the threshold effect of circulation industry in promoting the development of urbanization and agricultural modernization, puts forward research hypothesis and conducts empirical analysis by the threshold model with China＇s provincial panel data from 2000 to 2013. The results find that the development level of circulation industry can significantly influence the stability of urban agglomeration in regional economy which indicates that circulation industry exerts significant threshold effect on the development of agricultural modernization promoted by urbanization. When the development level of circulation industry has not reached the threshold, the promotion effect of urbanization on agricultural modernization is not significant; while the level reaches the threshold, the effect will be significant.

关 键 词：城镇化 农业现代化 流通业 门槛效应 

分 类 号：F320.1[经济管理—产业经济] F326.6