华北地区地震活动趋势的灰色预测  

GREY PREDICTION OF SEISMIC ACTIVE TENDENCY IN NORTH CHINA

作　　者：平彩鹏 单连君[1] 冯向东[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北省地震局,河北石家庄050021

出　　处：《防灾减灾学报》2016年第1期15-20,共6页Journal of Disaster Prevention And Reduction

摘　　要：基于他人对华北地区第四活动期以来5级以上地震活动幕的划分结果,本文提取每一地震活动幕的起始时间作为特征量,建立了华北地区地震活动幕开始时间的GM(1,1)灰色预测模型。经t检验和后验差方法验证,认为所建预测模型合适可用,据此预测,2018年前后华北地区可能进入下一轮新的5级以上地震活动幕,并将这一预测结果与其他研究结果进行了分析比较。According to the partition results of the M ≥ 5 seismic active episode since fourth activity in North China by Other authors, we established the grey prediction model GM（1,1） for the starting time of the seismic active episode in North China while extracting the beginning time of each seismic active episode. This model is considered to be available after verified by the t test and the posterior- variance-test. Based on the prediction, the North China is supposed to enter into the next M ≥ 5 seismic active episode in 2018 before and after, the prediction results and some other research results are simultaneously analyzed and compared.

关 键 词：华北地区 地震活动幕 GM(1  1)模型 灰色预测 

分 类 号：P315.5[天文地球—地震学]