ENSO、NAO、IOD和PDO对珠江流域降水的影响研究  

Influences of ENSO,NAO,IOD and PDO on precipitation regimes in the Pearl River basin

作　　者：黄翀[1] 张强[1] 肖名忠[1] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学地理科学与规划学院∥华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室∥广东省城市化与地理环境空间模拟重点实验室,广东广州510275

出　　处：《中山大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第2期134-142,共9页Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni

基　　金：国家杰出青年科学基金资助项目(51425903);香港特别行政区研究资助局基金资助项目(CUHK441313)

摘　　要：通过旋转经验正交分解法,将珠江流域季节和年降水分为时间分量和相应的空间特征,研究了珠江流域降水与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)、北大西洋涛动(NAO)、印度洋偶极子(IOD)和太平洋10 a涛动(PDO)的遥相关关系。同时,通过分析季节和年降水发生天数及强度的变化与ENSO、NAO、IOD和PDO指数的关系,探讨了上述气候指标对降水的影响机制。研究结果表明:1 ENSO和NAO是导致珠江流域季节降水和年降水发生变化的主要因素。春季降水与NAO和PDO成正相关,与ENSO和IOD成负相关;夏季降水与NAO成负相关;秋季降水与ENSO和IOD成正相关;冬季降水与ENSO和NAO成正相关;年降水与NAO和IOD成正相关。2 ENSO、NAO、IOD和PDO对珠江流域季节和年降水的影响主要是通过改变降水天数与降水强度来达到的,同时这种影响具有季节的差异性。Teleconnections between El Nio / Southern Oscillation（ ENSO）,North Atlantic Oscillation（ NAO）,Indian Ocean Dipole（ IOD） and Pacific Decadal Oscillation（ PDO） and seasonal and annual precipitation regimes over the Pearl River basin have been analyzed based on the Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Functions decomposing the seasonal and annual precipitation into temporal and the associated spatial patterns. Furthermore,changes in the seasonal and annual occurrence and intensity of wet days linked to the ENSO,NAO,IOD and PDO indices have also been investigated to discover the influences of the climate indices on precipitation regimes. The results show that： 1 ENSO and NAO are the leading driving factors for seasonal and annual precipitation variability over the Pearl River basin. The spring precipitation is positively related with NAO and PDO,and is negatively related with ENSO and IOD. The summer precipitation is negatively related with NAO. The autumn precipitation is positively related with ENSO and IOD. The winter precipitation is positively related with ENSO and NAO. And the annual precipitation is positively related with NAO and IOD. 2 ENSO,NAO,IOD and PDO affect seasonal and annual precipitation mainly by changing the occurrence and intensity of wet days in the Pearl River basin,and this effect has seasonal differences.

关 键 词：气候指标 降水机制 旋转经验正交分解 ENSO 珠江流域 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学] TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]