福建省碳排放分布结构特征及影响因素分析  

Study on Distribution Structure and Driving Factors of Carbon Emission in Fujian Province

作　　者：祁神军[1] 刘兵[1] 张云波[1] 王晓璇[1] 温日琨[2] 

机构地区：[1]华侨大学土木工程学院,福建厦门361021 [2]浙江农林大学风景园林与建筑学院,浙江杭州311300

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2016年第7期1-10,共10页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(LCA视角下宏观建筑碳排放结构特性演化机理及区域化减排机制研究:71303082);教育部人文社会科学规划青年基金项目"不同结构建筑碳排放流模拟及优化:基于工程经济学的视角"(13YJCZH194);福建省软科学项目"福建省建筑行业碳排放核算与减排策略研究"(2014R0015)

摘　　要：基于福建省6大产业和居民生活消费17种一次性能源,测算了1995年至2012年福建省能源消费和碳排放的总体趋势,分析了碳排放的能源空间分布结构及产业空间分布结构;创新型地将能源结构效应分解为能源消费种类变化效应和能源消费量变化效应,从而对碳排放分解模型进行了改进;并从能源强度效应、能源结构效应、经济发展效应和人口规模效应分解了各因素对福建省生产和生活碳排放的贡献值、变化趋势及相互作用机理.研究结果表明,福建省的碳排放在今后很长一段时间内将继续保持较快的增长趋势,其中经济发展是导致排放量持续增加的主因,能源效率的提高是减少能源消耗和降低碳排放量的重要手段,能源消费结构的调整和优化具有较大的减排节能的潜力.The characteristic of energy consumption and carbon emissions were estimated from 1995 to 2012 in Fujian Province based on 17 kinds of energy consumption data in the six main industries and residents＇sector , and the structure of carbon emissions in all kinds of energy consumption and all industries was also analyzed. The driving factor of structure adjustment was decomposed into the change of energy kinds and consumption amount, and then the improved decomposition model of carbon emissions was built, decomposing the factors into energy intensity, structure adjustment, economic development and population size. The factors＇contributions to the growth of carbon emissions, variation tendency and interaction mechanism were measured and calculated from two effects of industries and residents＇ sector by the improved model. The decomposition results show that： using year 1995 as the base year, economic development was the main driving factor of carbon emission increasing, energy efficiency improving was the important means of decrease of carbon emission, and optimization of energy consumption structure was also a great potential meas. The increasing tendency of carbon emissions of Fujian province will remain within a very long time in the future, the government should take scientific policy of low carbon emissions with sustainable economic development.

关 键 词：福建省 能源消费 碳排放 因素分解 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]