含风电电力系统的多时间尺度模糊机会约束动态经济调度模型  

Multi-Time Scale Fuzzy Chance Constrained Dynamic Economic Dispatch Model for Power System With Wind Power

作　　者：翟俊义[1] 任建文[1] 周明[1] 李整[1] 

机构地区：[1]新能源电力系统国家重点实验室(华北电力大学),河北省保定市071003

出　　处：《电网技术》2016年第4期1094-1099,共6页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51177043);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(2015MS128);河北省自然科学基金项目(F2014502081)~~

摘　　要：风电出力的模糊不确定性增加了调度决策的难度。将风电和负荷预测值用模糊参数表示,基于可信性理论,将传统确定性系统约束转化成模糊机会约束。由于风电和负荷预测精度具有随预测时间尺度的缩短而提高的特点,因此,将模糊置信度设置为递增向量,以反映预测精度的变化。建立多时间尺度下含多模糊参数的模糊机会约束动态经济调度模型。多时间尺度调度分为日前24 h计划、日内4 h滚动计划、实时15 min计划和自动发电控制(automatic generation control,AGC)。各时间级的调度计划协调配合,兼顾经济性与可靠性。根据风电及负荷的最新预测信息,滚动修正原有发电计划,逐级消纳预测偏差量。算例采用山西某实际风电场数据,验证了上述模型能够有效降低风电及负荷预测不确定性的影响,减轻调度人员及AGC机组的调节压力。Fuzzy uncertainty of wind power output increases difficulty of dispatching decision. This paper used fuzzy parameters to express wind power and load forecast. Based on credibility theory, traditional deterministic system constraints were transformed into fuzzy opportunity constraints. Because accuracy of wind power and load forecasting improves with shortening of forecasting time scale. Therefore, this paper set fuzzy confidence level as incremental vector to reflect change of forecast accuracy. A fuzzy chance constrained dynamic economic dispatch model with multiple fuzzy parameters in multi-time scale was established. Multi-time scale dispatching plan was divided into a day-ahead 24-hour plan, an intra-day 4-hour rolling plan, a real-time 15-minute plan and automatic generation control（AGC）. Dispatching plan of each time scale was in harmonic coordination, and balanced economy and reliability. Rolling amendment of original generation plan and absorption of forecast deviation step by step according to the latest forecast information of wind power and system load were achieved. An example of an actual wind field data in Shanxi Province was calculated to verify that this model effectively reduced uncertainty impact of wind power and load forecasting and relieved adjustment pressure of dispatchers and AGC units.

关 键 词：多时间尺度 风电消纳 滚动协调调度 可信性理论 不确定性 模糊机会约束 

分 类 号：TM734[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]