天气形势预测法在深圳市空气质量预报中的应用研究  

Study on the Air Quality Prediction Models of Shenzhen City

作　　者：江淑芳[1] 朱德明 林楚雄 刘婵芳 徐伟嘉[1] 李红霞[1] 黄慎[1] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学先进技术研究院,广东广州510275 [2]广州旭诚信息科技有限公司,广东广州510275 [3]深圳市环境监测中心站,广东深圳510888

出　　处：《环境科学与技术》2016年第3期176-181,共6页Environmental Science & Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(414012221010163)

摘　　要：基于深圳市2013年4月-2014年3月每日气象观测数据和空气质量监测数据,分析了深圳市不同空气污染程度下的天气规律及影响要素特征,并通过将天气系统分为13种类型,在寻求与建立不同天气类型情景下污染物（PM2.5、PM10、SO2、NO2、CO、O3与AQI指数）变化函数的基础上,构建了天气形势预测模型对深圳市未来1-3 d空气质量进行预测。结果表明：（1）整体而言,低压系统和辐合区有利于深圳市大气污染物的扩散,而高压系统和均压区不利于大气污染物的扩散。（2）当深圳市出现轻度以上污染时,陆地一般由高压系统所控制,且深圳以处于高压前部分主。（3）天气形势预测模型对深圳市AQI指数的24、48、72 h预报相对误差分别为22.0%、22.2%与21.9%,该模型具有一定的准确率和可靠性,对空气质量预测具有较好的应用价值,可为空气质量预报预警提供科学的参考依据。Based on the daily meteorological observation data and air quality monitoring data of 2013 April- 2014 March in Shenzhen City,the analysis of the weather characteristics and air pollution were analyzed. Thirteen weather scenarios were created in order to construct forecast model of pollutant concentration（PM2.5,PM10,SO2,NO2,O3,CO）and AQI index.The forecast model was used for forecasting the future 72 hours air quality of Shenzhen. The results showed that the low pressure system and the convergence area is conducive to the spread of air pollutants in Shenzhen. And the high pressure system and equalizing zone is not conducive to the spread of air pollutants. When the city has the mild pollution,land is controlled by a high pressure system control,and Shenzhen located in the front part of high pressure. The prediction relative error of AQI index in Shenzhen with 24,48 and 72 hour were 22%,22.2% and 21.9%,respectively. The model has high accuracy and reliability,and it has good application value on air quality forecasting,which can provide scientific reference for forecast and early warning of air quality.

关 键 词：空气质量 大气监测 天气形势 预报预警 

分 类 号：X823[环境科学与工程—环境工程]