计及风险及备用成本的含风电电力系统经济调度  

Economic Dispatch of Wind Power Integrated Systems Based on Risk and Reserve Cost

作　　者：杨佳俊 雷宇 孙允[3] 谭圆[3] 朱思萌 

机构地区：[1]国网山东省电力公司莱芜供电公司 [2]71496部队 [3]国网山东省电力公司济宁供电公司 [4]国网山东省电力公司枣庄供电公司

出　　处：《山东电力技术》2016年第2期11-16,共6页Shandong Electric Power

摘　　要：风电出力与负荷预测的不确定性给电力系统的经济调度带来了困难,如何处理备用风险,综合考虑经济发电与旋转备用计划是经济调度中需要解决的问题。在模型中引入旋转备用来应对可能出现的电力不足,将风电预测功率的条件期望与风电计划出力的差值表示系统对风电的正负备用需求,通过引入风电和负荷预测偏差的概率分布,建立了风电与负荷的联合概率密度函数。构建失负荷模型表征风险水平,并假定失负荷的风险水平不低于某一置信水平,对约束中的最大值函数通过K-S函数转化。考虑到合理弃风或切负荷有利于系统稳定,在目标函数中加入弃风或切负荷的价值损失。最后,用含10台常规火电机组和一个大型风电场的系统为例进行模型和算法的求解验证,结果表明所提模型和算法的有效性和合理性。The uncertainty of wind power and load forecast brought difficulties to power economic dispatch, the problem that how to deal with risk, economic generation and spinning reserve plan need to be solved. Spinning reserve was induced to compensate the power deficit. By means of calculating the difference between the conditional expectation of actual wind farm output and the scheduled wind farm output, the demand of wind power on positive and negative spinning reserve was determined.Wind and load combined probability density function was constructed, by introducing the probability model of wind power and forecasting error. The model of load loss characterized the risk level which was restricted in a confidence level, was built.Constraints of model were simplified by the function of K-S. The cost function of shedding wind power or load was added into the goal function considering that rational shedding wind or load was benefit to system security. A system with ten conventional generators and one wind farm was simulated, and results showed the effectiveness of the proposed model and method.

关 键 词：联合概率分布 条件期望 失负荷概率 风险 K-S函数 

分 类 号：TM734[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]