全面抗战爆发前中国经济危机再探讨  

Further Probe into China's Economic Crisis before Outbreak of Full-scale Anti-Japanese War

作　　者：蒋清宏[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院近代史研究所,北京100086

出　　处：《军事历史研究》2016年第2期64-78,共15页Military History Research

基　　金：2013年中国博士后科学基金资助项目"中美币制现代化比较研究"(2013M540320)

摘　　要：20世纪30年代全面抗战爆发前,中国爆发了严重的经济危机。但学界对这次经济危机是否存在及产生的原因,仍存在诸多争论。在这些争论中,似乎最为可靠的论据就是统计数据。然而,有些统计数据只是说明"统计真实"而不能说明"历史真实"。如果仔细考察这些统计数据背后的历史信息,我们将会得出完全相反的结论。本文即着重考察这些统计数据背后的"历史真实",从而证明全面抗战爆发前中国经济危机的史实存在,危机的原因则是国际物价结构性下跌经过银汇率传导造成中国消费品工业短暂兴盛,农产品价格下降,由此农村购买力丧失,工业品市场萎缩,工业企业陷入危机,无力清偿贷款,金融业最终也被拖入危机。Before the outbreak of the full-scale Anti-Japanese war in the 1930s, China was hit by a severe economic crisis, which not only weakened China＇s strength against Japan but also impaired its economic preparation for the War. The future of China＇s Anti-Japanese War and its political trend were also seriously affected. But views about this economic crisis have always varied. Statistical data are usually believed to be the most reliable arguments for academic debates, but actually some data seem to be only ＂statistically true＂ rather than ＂historically true＂. With careful examination of the information behind the statistical data, conclusions to the contrary will be drawn. This paper attempts to explore the ＂historically true＂ hidden behind the statistical data, so as to testify historical fact of the economic crisis in China before the outbreak of the comprehensive Anti-Japanese War and analyze the various causes of this crisis.

关 键 词：全面抗战 经济危机 农民购买力 银行贷款 消费品工业 

分 类 号：K265[历史地理—历史学] E296[历史地理—中国史]