基于target-MOTAD改进模型的设施农作物组合优化研究  

Optimization of facility crop combinations based on the target-MOTAD improved model

作　　者：温丹苹[1] 李静[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学工学院,南京210031

出　　处：《中国农业大学学报》2016年第4期121-128,共8页Journal of China Agricultural University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71301077);中央高校基本业务费(KJQN201407)

摘　　要：为深入研究设施农作物风险条件下最优生产组合,在target-MOTAD(The minimization of total absolute deviation model)模型基础上,打破风险状态概率等值恒定限制,对target-MOTAD模型进行改进。利用南京市六合区设施农户抽样调查数据,运用target-MOTAD改进模型实证研究设施农业中"高设施,高风险,高收益"与"低设施,低风险,低收益"2类情境的设施农户的生产经营状况以及不同风险条件下最优组合种植策略。结果表明:利用伪随机数模拟风险状态发生概率的target-MOTAD改进模型研究不确定情境的设施农作物组合种植计划是正确和有效的;南京市六合区"典型设施农户"的种植结构需要调整。综合考虑风险状态的规律和生产资料投入等因素,target-MOTAD改进模型更接近现实种植情况,可为不确定情境下设施农作物种植计划决策提供借鉴。To optimize of facility crop combinations under risk status,this study breaks the target-MOTAD（The minimization of total absolute deviation model）limitation of the probability under the equivalent constant risk status.By using the survey data in Nanjing Liuhe facility farms,improved target-MOTAD model is adopted to analyze facility agriculture of two types facility farms（i.e.＂high facility,high risk,high yield＂type and ＂low facility,low risk,low return＂type）.Yields under different operating conditions as well as conditions for the optimal combination of risk planting strategy were investigated.Results show that：Improved target-MOTAD model to study uncertain situations facility crop planting plan under pseudo-random number simulated risk status is accuracy and effective.In addition,typical facility farmers＇ planting structure needs to be adjusted.Considering the law of risk status and other factors of production inputs,the improved target-MOTAD model is more close to reality cultivation,and it provides reference for decision-making on facility crop plans for under uncertain situation.

关 键 词：种植计划 组合优化 设施农作物 target-MOTAD 风险 

分 类 号：S604.6[农业科学—园艺学]