南流江流域降水序列周期特征及变化趋势  

Analysis on period characteristics and variation trends of rainfall series in Nanliujiang river

作　　者：卢裕景 郭纯青[1] 代俊峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]桂林理工大学环境科学与工程学院,广西桂林541006

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技》2016年第2期99-104,110,共7页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41172230/D0213)~~

摘　　要：降水序列的变化规律和变化趋势是流域防洪抗旱时需要考虑的重要问题。以北部湾经济区南流江流域为例,尝试利用小波分析和R/S分析方法研究年降水量周期特征和变化趋势。研究结果表明：在短周期范围内,南流江上游流域具有3~8a的主周期,未来年降水量出现减少的趋势;中游流域具有3~8a的主周期,未来年降水量出现增加的趋势;下游流域具有5~8a的主周期,未来年降水量出现增加的趋势。因此,未来短期内南流江干流的防洪重心主要在于中下游流域,需要预防突发性降雨。Variations and trends of rainfall series are important problems and should be pain attention before basic flood control and drought relief.By taking the Nanliujiang river basin of Beibu gulf economic region as an example,this paper used wavelet analysis and R/S analysis to investigate the period characteristics and variation trends of rainfall series.The results showed that the upper reaches of Nanliujiang river had an obvious period about 3to 8years,the annual rainfall tended to decrease in the future;the middle reaches of Nanliujiang river had an obvious period about 3to 8years,the annual rainfall tended to increase in the future;and the lower reaches of Nanliujiang river had an obvious period about 5to 8years,the annual rainfall tended to increase in the future.It was concluded that the flood control should focus on the middle and lower reaches of Nanliujiang river,and need to prevent unexpected rainfall.

关 键 词：降水序列 周期特征 变化趋势 小波分析 R/S分析 南流江流域 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]