对3%赤字率标准的再思考--基于赤字、债务与经济增长的动态关系研究  

Rethinking on the 3% Deficit Boundary——Analysis on Deficit Rate、Debt Rate and Economic Growth

作　　者：蔡宁[1,2] 刘勇[3,4] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学博士后流动站 [2]国家开发银行博士后科研工作站 [3]国家开发银行 [4]国家开发银行业务发展局

出　　处：《财政研究》2016年第2期25-33,共9页Public Finance Research

摘　　要：本文首先通过文献对《马约》3%的赤字率标准提出了质疑,随后基于赤字率、负债率与经济增长三者之间的关系,构建了一个新的赤字标准:最大赤字率。该赤字率是实际赤字率的上限,实际赤字率只有在最大赤字率之下,才能保证财政的持续运行,反之超过最大赤字率,则有产生债务危机的风险。来自历史及预测的数据表明,中国仍有较大的赤字空间,短期内中国以较高的赤字刺激下行的经济完全可行,只要在未来有足够的偿还能力,并不会导致债务风险,但长期来看,政府还是应该严格控制赤字率,欧盟、拉美的债务危机已经给了我们警示。This paper gives some evidences that the 3% deficit boundary of Maastricht Treaty is not reliable,many countries have passed the red line. Then, this paper builds a new standard of deficit rate： the maximum deficit rate. The maximum deficit rate is the limit of the real deficit rate, which makes the government finance run sustainably. By the maximum deficit rate, this paper finds that China has ample room to improve its deficit rate when the economy goes a sharp slowdown. If the government has enough money to pay the debt, the deficit will not increase the financial risk. However, in the long term, the government should control the deficit rate strictly in respect of the EU and Latin America＇s debt crisis.

关 键 词：《马约》 赤字率 负债率 经济增长 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学]