中国地区资本回报率的变动及其影响因素分析  

An Analysis of the Changes of China's Regional Capital Return Rate and Its Influencing Factors

作　　者：张慕濒[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学应用经济学博士后流动站,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《当代财经》2016年第4期3-11,共9页Contemporary Finance and Economics

基　　金：上海市哲学社会科学规划项目"GVC下的金融化趋势对我国控制权市场的影响:基于长三角的实证研究"(2010EJB005)

摘　　要：地区资本回报率的差异及其变动决定了一国总体投资效率的走向。根据1990-2012年我国东、中、西部地区宏观数据的测算,更新了三个地区资本回报率的变动情况,然后构建计量模型分析资本深化、技术进步等五大因素对地区资本回报率变化的影响。研究结果显示,1990年以来各地区资本回报率呈现波动式下降,至2012年已低于20%。资本深化抑制了地区资本回报率的增长,人力资本素质的提高和技术进步可以显著提高资本的产出效率,外贸依存度的增加阻碍了东部地区资本回报率的提高,不影响西部地区资本回报率变动,但对中部地区产生了积极影响。未来应根据地区经济特色与发展阶段,实施改善人力资本、促进技术进步的产业与竞争政策,提高投资效率,推动经济转型。The differences and changes of regional capital return rates can determine the trend of total investment efficiency of the country. On the basis of the calculation of the macro-economic data from the eastern, central and western regions in China during the period of 1990-2012, this paper up- dates the changes of the capital return rates in the three regions and then constructs an econometric model to analyzes the impact of capital deepening, technological progress and other three factors on the changes of the regional capital return rates. The results show that the rates of return on capital in all the regions have declined since 1990 in a waving type and fell below 20% in 2012. Capital deep- ening has restrained the rise of the regional capital return rates. The improvement of the quality of human capital and technological progress can significantly promote the output efficiency of the capital. The increase of the degree of dependence upon foreign trade has hindered the improvement of the capital return rate in the eastern region, but has no impact on the changes of the capital return rate in the western region, while in the central region it has a positive impact. In the future, the govern- ment should, according to the regional economic characteristics and the development phases, imple- ment the competitive policies and industrial policies to improve the quality of human capital and pro- mote technological progress, so as to raise the investment efficiency and propel the economic transfor- mation.

关 键 词：资本回报率 资本深化 人力资本 

分 类 号：F427[经济管理—产业经济]