基于Logit模型的城际运输通道客运量分担率计算研究  

Research on Passenger Traffic Volume Sharing Rate of Inter-city Transport Corridor based on Logit Model

作　　者：冯妍[1] 李得伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学轨道交通控制与安全国家重点实验室,北京100044

出　　处：《铁道运输与经济》2016年第4期47-51,共5页Railway Transport and Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金委员会-中国铁路总公司高速铁路基础研究联合基金(U1434207)

摘　　要：采用二项?Logit?模型对城际运输通道内各种交通方式的分担率进行计算,建立效用函数模型,通过层次分析法结合调查问卷数据确定参数,随后将模型运用到昌九城际运输通道进行实证分析。计算得到该通道内城际铁路和高速公路的客运量分担率分别为?59.01%?和?40.99%,并分析企业收入对影响因素的敏感性,对运输企业提出相关结论和建议。Through calculating the sharing rate of each traffic mode inside inter-city transport corridor by using binomial Logit model, the utility function model was established and its parameters were determined by using AHP method and combining with questionnaire data, and then, the model was applied on Nanchang-Jiujiang inter-city transport corridor and was taken example analysis. Through calculation, this paper points out the passenger traffic sharing rate of inter-city railway and highway inside the corridor are 59.01% and 40.99% respectively, analyzes the sensitivity of enterprise＇s revenue on influence factors, and puts forward relative conclusions and suggestions for transport enterprises.

关 键 词：分担率 LOGIT模型 昌九城际运输通道 效用函数 

分 类 号：U293.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]