网络舆情事件演变的动力学建模及预警监测  

Dynamic Modeling and Early Warning Monitoring of the Network Opinion Events Evolution

作　　者：徐勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖北行政学院信息中心,湖北武汉430022

出　　处：《现代情报》2016年第4期14-19,56,共7页Journal of Modern Information

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"基于情景分析的网络舆情事件应急管理动态调控机制研究"(项目编号:13CGL132)

摘　　要：为提高网络舆情事件预警监测的有效性,以社会学的价值累加理论为基础,基于系统动力学的"结构——功能"模型,通过对网络舆情事件演变中的影响因素及其作用表现的分析,归纳事件的演变规律和其中的主要因果关系,构建网络舆情事件演变的系统动力学模型,确立事件演变中各主要因素间的数据关系。以此为指导,设计预警监测模型,构建网络舆情热点智能监测平台系统,获取、发现网络热点信息,研判其发展趋势,为政府应对网络舆情事件提供决策支持。In order to improve the effectiveness of early warning monitoring of network opinion events,based on the value added theory,the evolution law of the network opinion events is analyzed,and the main causal relationship in the events evolution is summarized. And based on the structure and function model of system dynamics,the system dynamics model of the network opinion events evolution is built. Using the Vensim PLE,the effects of relevant factors on the event evolution are simulation analyzed,and the data relationship among the main factors is established. According to the data relationship,the early warning monitoring model is designed. And the intelligent monitoring system of network public opinion hotspot is built to acquisite and discovery the hotspot information, analyze the development trend. The analysis results could be used as the necessary theoretical basis for the government to formulate the network opinion events coping strategies.

关 键 词：网络舆情 事件 系统动力学 演变 预警 

分 类 号：TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]