概念红利、内生性障碍与俄罗斯北方海航道开发的战略困境?  

The Interests,Endogenous Obstacles and Strategic Dilemmas of Russia's Policy of the Northern Sea Route Development

作　　者：封帅[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海国际问题研究院俄罗斯中亚研究中心

出　　处：《俄罗斯东欧中亚研究》2016年第2期75-97,157,共23页Russian，East European & Central Asian Studies

基　　金：国家海洋局国际合作司(港澳台办公室)和中国极地研究中心联合项目--"2014~15航季北方海航道开发状况评估及前景分析"(项目编号:QY201501-03)的阶段性成果;"一带一路安全问题协同创新中心经费"资助

摘　　要：2014年,北方海航道的航运开发活动遭遇严重挫折,这意味着俄罗斯政府选择的以概念红利为核心的理想化开发模式的缺陷完全暴露。这种开发模式不仅难以克服长期阻碍航道开发的内生性障碍,而且必然导致航运数据出现大量泡沫,无法真正实现航道开发的目标。目前,俄罗斯在航道开发问题上已经陷入了短期内难以摆脱的战略困境,航道航运数据的暴跌如果不能在短时间内获得明显改善,便意味着北方海航道开发将进入一个较长的回落和调整阶段。我国未来一段时间对北方海航道的参与和研究仍当继续加强,但投资和经营活动则应该更加审慎。In 2014,the development of North Sea Route suffered a serious setback,which means that defects of the ideal development model selected by Russian government that based on the conceptual dividend completely exposed. This development model is not only difficult to overcome the endogenous barriers that long- term hinder the development of Northern Sea Route,but there are so large bubbles in the shipping data that the development goals of the Route are can' t be achieved. At present,Russian government has been plunged into a difficult strategic dilemma. And the slump of the shipping data in 2014 maybe become an important mark that the development of the Northern Sea Route will fall into a long depression period. Therefore, Chinese government and shipping companies should be more prudent to participate in the activities in the future.

关 键 词：北方海航道 航道开发 内生性障碍 概念红利 俄罗斯 

分 类 号：F555.12[经济管理—产业经济] D851.2[政治法律—政治学]