利基航线、俱乐部物品与北方海航道开发战略转型的路径选择:一个中方视角  

The Niche Route,Club Goods and Path Choices for the Strategic Transformation in Developing the Northern Sea Route:A Chinese Perspective

作　　者：封帅[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海国际问题研究院俄罗斯中亚研究中心

出　　处：《俄罗斯研究》2016年第1期79-103,共25页Russian Studies

基　　金：国家海洋局国际合作司(港澳台办公室)和中国极地研究中心联合项目--"2014-15航季北方海航道开发状况评估及前景分析"(项目批准号:QY201501-03)的阶段性成果;"一带一路安全问题协同创新中心经费"的资助

摘　　要：随着国际原油价格暴跌、航运业危机的全球蔓延、以及各种洲际运输通道建设方案的不断推进,北方海航道开发的国际环境日益恶化,北方海航道的开发战略转型已迫在眉睫。以经济视角来看,新阶段航道开发战略转型应包括三个方面的内容:在开发思路上,确立利基航线的建设目标;在市场定位上,明确俱乐部物品的身份;在资本筹集方面,设立多边国际融资平台。可以尝试以建构北方海航道俱乐部的方式,突破当前航道开发在资本投入、市场份额和成本控制等方面的障碍,在不利的国际环境中维持航道运营,以待自然条件和国际经济条件的进一步改善。但从政治层面看,这种转型模式意味着俄罗斯需要向国际机制让渡部分北方海航道的管理权,而这会在客观上削弱俄罗斯在航道议题上的掌控能力。北方海航道能否顺利完成战略转型,是对俄罗斯在航道开发问题上决心与意志的考验。With the falling prices of international crude oil, the global spread of crises in shipping business, in addition to continuous implementation of various inter-continental passageway construction initiatives, the international environment of Northern Sea Route＇s development is deteriorating gradually Strategic transformation of the Northern Sea Route＇s development has become a very urgent task. From the economic perspective, the strategic transformation in the new stage should include three aspects： 1） to set the goal of constructing a niche route as the goal of the development of NSR; 2） to clarify the Club Goods as the identity of NSR; 3） to establish a multilateral international financing platform to raise capital for the development of NSR. Russian government could construct the Northern Sea Route Club to deal with the current obstacles to the development of NSR, such as raising capital in investment, keeping market shares and controlling cost of shipping companies. The purpose of keeping the development of NSR in unfavorable international environment is waiting for the next booming era under the improved natural and international economic conditions.

关 键 词：北方海航道 利基航线 俱乐部物品 国际融资平台 

分 类 号：D751.2[政治法律—政治学]