中国最优与最大城市规模探讨——基于264个城市的规模成本-收益法分析  

An Investigation on the Optimal and Largest City Sizes in China Based on Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Sizes of 264 Cities

作　　者：张自然[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院经济研究所

出　　处：《金融评论》2015年第5期18-30,122,共13页Chinese Review of Financial Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点课题<中国城市规模;空间聚集与管理模式研究>(批准文号:15AJL013)国家社会科学基金课题<对中国不同发展阶段减排目标的碳排放权分配机制研究>(批准文号:14BJL10)的资助

摘　　要：本文在总结前人城市规模研究的基础上，选取中国264个地级及地级以上城市1990-2011年的数据，采用成本-收益法来研究中国城市的最大与最优适度规模问题。并按不考虑人力资本、考虑人均受教育年限和考虑人力资本三种情况来分析264个城市规模收益情况，外部成本则考虑政府成本、企业工资成本、通货膨胀成本、住房成本和环境成本几个方面，得出了最小与最大城市规模范围和最优城市规模范围。本文发现最优城市规模即净规模收益峰值在556-614万人之间．外部相对成本最低时的城市规模为578万人，最优规模大约在600万人。合理的城市相对规模净收益大于0．3的城市规模为166-2441万人，此时的外部相对成本大部分不超过0．5。城市相对规模净收益为正的区间为65-3569万人之间。据此，中国的大城市、超大城市不是太多而是太少。北京、上海这些超大城市虽然目前面临交通拥挤、环境污染尤其是严重雾霾等问题．但其城市规模还远没有达到饱和的区间。Based on summarization of previous studies on city size, this paper probes into the largest,optimal and reasonable sizes of Chinese cities with data from 264 cities at municipal and above levels during 1990-2011. The benefits of city size are considered in three different scenarios, viz. human capital excluded, average years of schooling included, and human capital included. External costs are considered with government costs, labor costs in firms, inflation costs, housing costs and environment costs. This cost-benefit analysis derives the interval of smallest and largest cities and the optimal city size: the optimal city size, or the peak value of net size benefits occurs when the population is between5.56 and 6.14 million, while the lowest point of external relative costs corresponds to the population of5.78 million, and the optimal size is around 6 million. Reasonable size of city, of which the net benefit is larger than 0.3, is between 1.66 to 24.41 million, and the external relative costs are generally not larger than 0.5. The interval of city size with positive net size benefits is between 0.65 and 35.69 million. Therefore, China too few rather than too many large cities. Mega-cities like Beijing and Shanghai,although facing the problems like traffic jams and environmental pollution, especially serious haze, are still far from their full capacity.

关 键 词：最优城市规模 成本-收益法 人力资本 

分 类 号：F299.2[经济管理—国民经济]