公共部门就业对宏观经济稳定的影响--基于搜索匹配模型的DSGE模拟与预测  

Influence of Public Sector Employment on Macroeconomic Stability——DSGE Simulations and Projections Based on Search and Matching Model

作　　者：张晓娣[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院经济研究所,上海200020

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2016年第4期39-56,共18页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国特色公共经济理论与政策研究”(批准号11&ZD073);中国博士后基金项目“公共财政结构、居民收入与经济增长质量”(批准号2012M520788)

摘　　要：长期以来,中国公共部门就业具有明显的脱离市场的非周期性特征,规模和工资水平均对经济波动响应程度不高。搜索匹配模型基础上的DSGE模拟结果显示,这种就业刚性将扩大宏观经济的周期性波动。现实中,公共部门工资相对于企业的低弹性造成了劳动者对未来公共部门就业价值的稳定预期,进而提高了当前失业状态的价值。一方面,这使得求职者自愿维持失业,减少对企业的劳动力供给;另一方面,维护了劳动者与企业协商工资的能力,增强了企业工资粘性,破坏了价格调节机制对就业的内在稳定作用。公共部门就业情景预测说明,在经济遭受负面冲击时,顺应经济周期调整公共部门工资能够降低企业减薪的障碍,提高企业在经济下行时期创造新增就业的积极性,减少失业率上升幅度和持续时间。如果维持公共部门工资的非周期性,即使扩大公共部门就业规模,也很难阻止失业率持续走高和经济状况持续恶化。本研究脱离行政、体制、社会等因素,从客观视角对中国公共部门就业的经济影响作初步探索,其结论也为饱受争议的中国公务员薪酬调整提供了一定的理论启示,论证了完善机关事业单位工资正常增长制度、提高公务员基本工资标准市场弹性的经济意义。For a long time,China＇s public sector employment has exhibited an obvious feature of acyclical to the market,the size and wage of which are both insensitive to economic fluctuations.According to the simulation results derived from the Search and Matching model within an dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework,this kind of employment rigidity will amplify the cyclical volatilities of macro economy.The low elasticity of realistic public sector wage relative to firm sector leads to workers＇ stable expectation for the value of future public employment,and thus improves the value of current state of unemployment.On the one hand,job hunters are willing to remain unemployed,reducing the labor supply for firms;on the other hand,workers＇ bargaining power with the firms is stablized,and the wage stickiness faced by firms is enhanced,undermining the internal stablizing effects of price adjustment mechanism on employment.Predictions of artificial scenarios of public employment policies indicate that,with a negative shock to the economy,a pro-cyclical wage policy of the public sector eliminates the obstacles of cutting wages for the firms,stimulates firms to create new jobs during the economic downturn,and thus reduces the amount and the duration of a rising unemployment rate.With an acyclical public sector wage,even an expansion of public employment is not able to keep unemployment from ascending and economic situation from aggravating.Ignoring political,institutional and social concerns,this research stands as a tentative exploration for the economic implications of China＇s public sector employment from an objective perspective.The conclusions it has reached might shed some light on the controversial issues around government employees＇ wage adjustment in China.It is convinced that establishing a regular wage-rasing system of government sector and improving the market elasticity public employees＇ basic salary standard are of economic significance.

关 键 词：公共部门就业 搜索匹配模型 动态随机一般均衡 

分 类 号：F062.6[经济管理—政治经济学]