近30 a福建省前汛期极端降水事件特征及其成因  

Characteristics and causes of extreme precipitation events over Fujian province during May and June in recent three decades

作　　者：刘静[1,2] 管兆勇[1,3] 龚振彬 陈艳蝶 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室,南京210044 [2]福州市气象局,福州350008 [3]南京信息工程大学气候与气象灾害协同创新中心,南京210044 [4]福建省气象局,福州350001

出　　处：《气象科学》2016年第1期28-35,共8页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406024);国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(41330425)

摘　　要：利用1981—2010年前汛期（5—6月）福建地区台站逐日降水观测资料及NCEP/NCAR再分析逐日资料,对福建地区极端降水事件发生规律及环流异常进行了分析。结果表明：近30 a福建地区前汛期各站极端降水事件的发生频次在40-62次之间,沿海台站发生次数明显少于内陆台站。区域性极端降水发生频次亦呈显著增加趋势,增幅为0.06次/a,且在1994年后,前汛期极端降水事件的发生频次明显增多。区域性极端降水86次事件平均的降水分布显示在闽西中部降水量最大,并由此向外围逐渐减小。极端降水事件对前汛期降水贡献较大,约占前汛期总降水量的两成以上。极端降水事件的发生与大气环流异常存在密切关系,对深刻认识福建地区极端降水事件的形成机制和变化规律具有重要意义。By using daily precipitation data in pre-flood（ May to June） period in Fujian province and NCEP / NCAR daily reanalysis data from 1981 to 2010 the characteristics and causes of the extreme precipitation events over Fujian province are investigated. Results show that there have been 40- 62 extreme precipitation events occurred at different stations during pre-flood period in Fujian in recent 30 years. The events occurrences in coastal area are obviously less than those in inland area. The occurrences of regional extreme precipitation events increase obviously with a tendency of 6 times per decade.Particularly in the period after 1994,the occurrences of regional extreme precipitation during pre-flood period are significantly more than in the period before 1994. The central area of western Fujian has the largest mean regional extreme precipitation events. The total precipitation due to the extreme events contributes more than 20% to the total rainfall during pre-flood period. The occurrences of extreme precipitation events are induced by the anomalies of atmosphere circulations,which are beneficial to better understand the mechanisms of extreme precipitation events and to find clues to predict these extreme events.

关 键 词：前汛期 极端降水事件 环流异常 福建地区 

分 类 号：P466[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]