中国减缓气候变化评估  

Climate change mitigation in China

作　　者：何建坤[1] 陈文颖[1] 王仲颖[2] 刘培[3] 温宗国[4] 肖学智[5] 王春峰[6] 巢清尘[7] 邹骥 顾阿伦[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学能源环境经济研究所,北京100084 [2]国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所,北京100038 [3]清华大学热能工程系,北京100084 [4]清华大学环境学院,北京100084 [5]环境保护部环境保护对外合作中心,北京100035 [6]国家林业局国际合作司,北京100714 [7]中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081 [8]国家应对气候变化战略研究和国际合作中心,北京100038

出　　处：《科学通报》2016年第10期1055-1062,共8页Chinese Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划(2012BAC19B11)资助

摘　　要：本文对中国碳排放状况、分部门减缓碳排放的技术潜力与成本、实现2020年GDP碳排放强度比2005年水平下降40%~45%目标的关键领域与技术、碳排放峰值的条件与不确定性等问题进行了分析与评估,提出了中国促进碳排放峰值目标实现的减缓气候变化对策,指出需要加快经济结构调整和增长方式转变,控制能源需求总量的过快增长,建立以新能源和可再生能源为主体的可持续能源体系,分行业、分地区地推进碳排放峰值目标的实现.Climate change mitigation issues including China＇s carbon emission status, the mitigation potential and cost in different sectors, the target of 40%–45% reduction of emission intensity of GDP in 2020 compared with the 2005 level, and conditions and uncertainties of the carbon emission peak are analyzed and assessed in the Third China National Climate Change Assessment Report and summarized in this paper. Economic structure adjustment has played and is expected to continue to play important role for carbon mitigation. Development of nuclear and renewable power would contribute to around 2 billion tons and 3.7 billion tons carbon reductions by 2020 and 2030 respectively. Key energy saving and low carbon technologies in the end-use sectors such as industry, transportation and building are listed and assessed. The mitigation potential and cost curve for steel is provided as an example to show that a large amount of carbon emissions could be reduced with minus mitigation cost partly resulting to energy saved. For industry process, carbon mitigation potentials would be around 420 million tons and 770 million tons by 2020 and 2030 respectively. Carbon mitigation potentials from LULUCF（Land use, land use change and forestry） are still uncertain and needed further research. For the assessment of 45% carbon intensity reduction target in 2020, it is concluded that economic structure adjustment, energy efficiency improvement, development of non-fossil energy, building and transportation would contribute to 33.4%, 28.5%, 20.4% and 17.3% of the total reductions. Assuming GDP growth rate as 6%–7% during 2010–2030, energy intensity reduction rate as 15% during 2015–2020, 14% during 2020–2025, and 13% during 2025–2030, the total primary energy consumption would be around 6 billion tons. To control coal use to less than 50% of the total primary energy consumption, while increasing the share of nature gas to over 10%, and the share of new and renewable energy to 20% or higher, carbon emissions would peak around 20

关 键 词：气候变化 减缓碳排放 减排潜力 碳排放峰值 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]