税制结构的经济增长绩效——基于分税制改革20年实证分析  

Economic Growth Performance of Tax Structure: Empirical Analysis on Two Decades of the Tax- sharing System Reform

作　　者：余红艳[1] 沈坤荣[2] 

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学财政与公共管理学院,安徽蚌埠233030 [2]南京大学商学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《财贸研究》2016年第2期104-111,共8页Finance and Trade Research

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目"我国经济增长潜力和动力研究"(14ZDA023);安徽省高校人文社会科学研究项目"税收优惠促进安徽经济增长的影响效应与动力机制研究"(SK2016A0029)

摘　　要：以税制结构与经济增长的理论分析为基础,实证分析分税制改革20年实践,结果表明:间接税为主的"效率型"税制结构显著降低了经济增长绩效,且这一消极效应在体制背景下得到了强化;宏观税负的负面经济增长绩效正逐步累积;现有税制安排弱化了分税制体制本身所带来的正向增长效应;投资的增长绩效尚未全面释放;人口红利的经济绩效渐进衰竭;教育环境的改善则有助于促进经济增长。广义税制结构对经济增长的影响分析表明:中国亟待通过优化税制结构,调整宏观税负水平,重塑体制激励框架,重构新一轮经济增长动力。Based on the theory of tax structure and economic grow th,the results of the empirical analysis after tw o decades of 1994 tax reform show s that ＂efficient＂tax structure significantly reduces the economic grow th performance,and this negative effect in the institutional context has been strengthened. M eanw hile the negative economic grow th performance macro tax burden is in the gradual accumulation,current tax system itself low ers economic grow th effects of tax- sharing system,the positive grow th effect of investment is to be fully released,demographic dividend grow th performance faces the progressive failure,and improving the educational environment helps promote economic grow th. Finally,research on generalized tax structure and economic grow th has concluded that China needs to optimize the tax structure,adjust the level of macro tax burden,and reshape the institutional incentive framew ork to enhance the new round of China＇s economic grow th momentum.

关 键 词：税制结构 经济增长 分税制 宏观税负 

分 类 号：F812.4[经济管理—财政学]