The Dynamics of Online Purchase Visits： Inertia or Switching？  

作　　者：Zelin Zhang Xia Wang Peter T. L. Popkowski Leszczyc Xiao Zuo 

机构地区：[1]School of Business, Renmin U.niversity of China, Beijing 100872, China [2]School of Business, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2R6, Canada [3]Baidu Marketing Research Institute, Beijing 100085, China

出　　处：《Frontiers of Business Research in China》2016年第1期1-18,共18页中国高等学校学术文摘·工商管理研究（英文版）

基　　金：This research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （No. 71302172 and No. 71202145）.

摘　　要：This paper studies the dynamics of online purchase patterns, focusing on the impact of the channel used on conversion probability, as well as the transition of channel use over time. A novel data set from a major Chinese online travel agency is used for analysis, consisting of four months of data with 24,337 store visits through three types of channels： direct visit, search advertising and referral. Results of a Bayesian multinomial logit model show that the search channel significantly affects consumers＇ conversion probability, and show a high degree of inertia in channel use. This finding contrasts sharply with suggestions of previous research that most future purchases will converge to the direct-visit channel.This paper studies the dynamics of online purchase patterns, focusing on the impact of the channel used on conversion probability, as well as the transition of channel use over time. A novel data set from a major Chinese online travel agency is used for analysis, consisting of four months of data with 24,337 store visits through three types of channels： direct visit, search advertising and referral. Results of a Bayesian multinomial logit model show that the search channel significantly affects consumers＇ conversion probability, and show a high degree of inertia in channel use. This finding contrasts sharply with suggestions of previous research that most future purchases will converge to the direct-visit channel.

关 键 词：conversion probability direct visit search engine REFERRAL 

分 类 号：TP273[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置] S157.1[自动化与计算机技术—控制科学与工程]