基于模糊综合评价法的泥石流风险评价  

Assessment on Debris Flow Risk based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method

作　　者：沈简 饶军[1] 傅旭东[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学土木建筑工程学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《灾害学》2016年第2期171-175,共5页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划课题(2014BAL05B07)

摘　　要：在既有的泥石流危险度模糊综合评价模型中加入易损度因子,首次建立了泥石流风险度模糊综合评价模型,使用该模型对神农架林区内的5条泥石流沟进行风险评价,得出了"模糊综合评价模型可用于泥石流风险评价"的结论。针对"模糊综合评价模型的计算结果能反映风险大小,不能表现风险特点"的问题,将模糊综合评价法与平面坐标相结合,提出一种新的泥石流风险评价法:模糊坐标法。该方法对泥石流的危险度及易损度分别进行模糊综合评价,用评价结果组成坐标点,并定义坐标点到原点的距离为风险度,利用平面坐标的二维属性使得评价结果既能表现危险度又能表现易损度,泥石流风险的具体特点也得以表达。将两种方法的计算结果进行比较分析,得出"模糊坐标法的评价结果更符合实际,模糊综合评价法的计算结果偏安全"的结论。Vulnerable degree factors are added into the existing fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of debris flow risk to establish for the first time the comprehensive evaluation model of debris flow risk ambiguity. Based on this model,risk assessment is done to five debris flows in Shennongjia Forest Region,and the results show that fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model could be used in debris flow risk assessment. According to the problem——the calculation results of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model can reflect the size of the risk,but is unable to reflect the risk characteristics,and combing fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method with the plane coordinate,a new debris flow risk assessment method——fuzzy coordinate method is put forward. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation on risk and vulnerability of a debris flow are done by the new method,with the evaluation results as coordinate points,define the distance from coordinates to the origin point as the risk degree,the evaluation results can reflect the risk and performance of vulnerability by using the two-dimensional characteristic of plane coordinate and the specific characteristics of the debris flow risk can be expressed.

关 键 词：模糊综合评价 泥石流 风险评价 模糊坐标 评价因子 

分 类 号：TU473[建筑科学—结构工程] X43[建筑科学—土工工程]