旱灾风险评估与调控关键技术研究进展  

Research progress on the key technologies of drought risk assessment and control

作　　者：金菊良[1,2] 宋占智 崔毅[1,2] 周玉良[1,2] 蒋尚明[3] 何君[4] 

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院,安徽合肥230009 [2]合肥工业大学水资源与环境系统工程研究所,安徽合肥230009 [3]水利部淮河水利委员会水利科学研究院水利水资源安徽省重点实验室,安徽合肥230088 [4]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京100101

出　　处：《水利学报》2016年第3期398-412,共15页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

基　　金：水利部重大基建前期项目(水规计[2011]412号);国家自然科学基金项目(51409001;51409002;51579059;51579060)

摘　　要：旱灾风险评估与调控能揭示旱灾风险系统各要素相互作用机制,是旱灾风险管理的基础和前提,可为制定旱灾风险防控措施提供科学依据。为此,本文系统论述了旱灾风险的基本概念、识别、评估和调控4方面关键技术的研究进展以及存在的问题,阐明了旱灾风险及旱灾风险系统的定义,归纳了旱灾风险评估的3类主要方法,简述了旱灾风险调控的主要内容,并探讨了未来旱灾风险评估与调控关键技术的主要发展方向。As the basis of drought risk management,drought risk assessment and control can reveal the elements interaction mechanism of drought risk system,which can provide scientific basis for drought risk prevention and control measures. In this paper,the key technologies and their problems of drought risk assessment and control such as basic concepts,recognition,assessment and control of drought disaster risk were systematically described,definitions of drought risk and drought risk system were put forward,three typicalmain methods of drought disaster risk assessment were summarized,the main contents of drought disaster risk control were briefly described,and the main development trend of these key technologies of drought risk assessment and control were discussed.

关 键 词：旱灾风险系统 旱灾风险识别 旱灾风险评估 旱灾风险调控 情景模拟分析 链式传递 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]