基于科技创新驱动的我国经济发展与结构优化测度研究  

Research on Economic Development and Structure Optimization of China Based on Technological Innovation-driven

作　　者：杨武[1] 杨淼[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京科技大学东凌经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《软科学》2016年第4期1-7,12,共8页Soft Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71273025)

摘　　要：依据熊彼特创新周期诠释经济发展周期理论,根据科技创新投入产出过程和经济发展内部层次结构,建立反映我国科技创新和经济发展水平的指标体系,运用变异系数法合成分类指数和综合指数,使用向量自回归（VAR）模型对1995~2014年我国科技创新驱动经济发展实际状况进行测度评价。结果发现：我国科技创新最终产出是通过较低的创新投入和成果转化效率获得的,其中掺杂了非科技因素;产业结构不合理问题长期没有得到有效改善;科技创新中间产出整体质量较差,造成科技创新效率更低;科技创新投入、经济发展规模与科技创新效率间呈现U字形关系,科技创新中间产出与科技创新效率间呈现倒U字形关系。On the basis of the theory of Schumpeter＇s innovation cycle interpretation of the cycle of economic development, according to the science and technology innovation input and output process and economic development of the internal struc- ture, this paper establishes index system reflecting the Chinese scientific and technological innovation and economic devel- opment level, and then it synthetizes classification index and comprehensive index by variation coefficient method, using the vector auto-regression model to measure and evaluate Chinese scientific and technological innovation drive the actual situa- tion of economic development from 1995 and 2014. The result shows that, Chinese scientific and technological innovation of the final output is obtained by low investment in innovation and achievement transformation efficiency, which mixes the non- technology factors; the industrial structure is not reasonable, the problem has not been improved for a long time; the poor quality of the overall scientific and technological innovation of intermediate output, resulting in science and technology to create lower efficiency ; the investment in science and technology innovation, economic development scale and technology innovation efficiency showes a U-shaped relationship, and the science and technology innovation intermediate outputs and the technological innovation efficiency showes an inverted U-shaped relationship.

关 键 词：科技创新 经济发展 分类指数 指标体系 变异系数法 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F204[经济管理—国民经济] F832