城镇燃气管道第三方破坏因素的模糊概率分析  

Fuzzy Probability Analysis on the Third Party Damage Factor for Urban Gas Pipeline

作　　者：李军[1,2] 张宏 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)机械与储运学院,北京102249 [2]中石油昆仑燃气有限公司,北京100101

出　　处：《天然气与石油》2016年第2期109-114,12,共6页Natural Gas and Oil

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51534008)

摘　　要：随着城镇燃气管网覆盖面的扩大,燃气事故严重影响城镇公共安全。城镇燃气管道第三方破坏,已成为燃气管道泄漏事故的主要因素。基于专家判断法,识别得出城镇燃气管道第三方破坏的56个风险因素;采用模糊数学中的模糊集合理论,得到56个风险因素的模糊概率数值,找出薄弱环节,针对性提出防范措施,并验证防范措施的有效性。研究成果可以指导燃气企业加强安全管理,有效降低燃气管道第三方破坏事故风险,提升燃气管道系统的安全性。With the expansion of the urban gas pipeline network coverage,gas accidents have seriously affected public safety and the damage to urban gas pipeline by the third party has become the main factor for pipeline leakage.The purpose of this paper is to study the factor for damage by the third party and identify 56 risk factors according to experts' judgement.Fuzzy mathematics theory is adopted to calculate fuzzy probability value of 56 risk factors,find out the weak link,put forward preventive measures and verify the effectiveness of the measures.Based on the research,main risk factors for urban gas pipeline damage and fuzzy probability have been identified,which provides guidance for gas enterprises to strengthen safety management,effectively reduce the risk of urban gas pipeline damage by the third party and improve the safety of urban gas pipeline system

关 键 词：城镇燃气管道 第三方破坏 模糊概率 风险因素 评价 

分 类 号：TU996.7[建筑科学—供热、供燃气、通风及空调工程]